| {"metadata":{"id":"016c59bebf0814949dd79d4a587ddc30","source":"gardian_index","url":"https://cgspace.cgiar.org/rest/bitstreams/2c81e294-e665-400e-bb48-3862dbd7c0a7/retrieve"},"pageCount":24,"title":"COMPENDIUM OF IMPACT PATHWAYS FOR ADAPTATION OF AFRICAN AGRICULTURE","keywords":[],"chapters":[{"head":"INTRODUCTION","index":1,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":184,"text":"In monitoring and evaluation of climate change adaptation, impact pathways serve as critical tools to untangle the complexities and interactions between evolving climate risks, impacts and a myriad of possible adaptation responses. Impact pathways provide structured roadmaps to translate actions into specific outcomes and impacts. They delineate the sequence of events from hazards to responses and effects, offering a methodical visualization for achieving the adaptation vision-i.e., increased resilience, enhanced adaptive capacity, and reduced vulnerability. This structured approach is pivotal for adaptation tracking, enabling stakeholders to systematically map elements that help to assess progress and effectiveness of adaptation actions. This document synthesizes key impact pathways for adaptations in agriculture sectors. Recognizing the evolving nature of climate-related risks, it serves a crucial role in assisting practitioners, researchers, and users in navigating the extensive array of possibilities within agricultural adaptation. Given the overwhelming number of potential pathways, this guide aims to lower the entry barrier by providing generic frameworks. These preliminary models serve as starting points, offering users a foundation upon which they can refine and customize their specific pathways to align with unique contexts and goals."},{"index":2,"size":103,"text":"The impact pathways presented in this document are not intended to be definitive; instead, they are designed to be modified and iterated upon. By commencing with a basic structure, users can save valuable time and resources, swiftly advancing towards the development of a tailored pathway that captures the intricacies of their adaptation challenges. The customization process involves several iterations required for ensuring that the pathways are fit-to-context. This involves stakeholder validations for grounding pathways in the reality, aligning indicators to accurately measure what is relevant and needed, developing data protocols and systems for tracking, and rigorously testing pathways through data collection and analysis."},{"index":3,"size":76,"text":"As organizations engage in the process of creating impact pathways, a notable observation emerges from this work: many pathways share common elements. This finding underscores the interconnected nature of adaptation strategies and suggests that despite the uniqueness of individual contexts, there exist common threads that bind diverse pathways. This realization has profound implications, emphasizing the importance of shared learning, collaboration, and the potential for the development of overarching frameworks that can be adapted to various contexts."},{"index":4,"size":205,"text":"The document is organized as follows. First, we briefly introduce the methods that informed the creation of the generic pathways. Subsequently, we present 12 impact pathways, conceived as initial frameworks that users can further customize and refine based on their unique contexts and goals. The pathways are organized in two broad categories, based on the scope of the investment. These include: off-farm investment pathways, covering weather and climate information services (WCIS), agricultural advisory, agricultural finance products, agricultural risk management instruments (insurance), and input supply chains (seeds and seedlings, feeds, and fertilizer); and on-farm investments, referring to: conservation agriculture, adjustments of on-farm strategies based on agro-climatic advisory, agroforestry, integrated soil fertility management, use of improved crop varieties, use of improved livestock breeds, as well as use of improved feeds and feeding strategies. On-farm strategies such as water management, irrigation systems, and postharvest management of farm products are currently under development and will be added to a second version of this compendium. We conclude with essential considerations for impact pathway design, highlighting critical next steps and reflections drawn from the iterative process of pathway development. This guide is intended as a dynamic tool, emphasizing adaptability and ongoing refinement in response to the evolving landscape of agricultural adaptation."}]},{"head":"METHODS","index":2,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"SELECTION OF AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS","index":3,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":116,"text":"In the initial phase of our study, we reviewed climate-smart agricultural investment plans (CSAIPs) from nine African countries, available online, including: Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Lesotho, Mali, Morocco, Republic of Congo, Zambia, Zimbabwe. This involved the identification and extraction of information pertaining to adaptation projects outlined in these plans. The extracted data included project locations, beneficiaries, targets, activities, expected outcomes, impacts, and indicators wherever available. Our review identified a total of 69 investment projects spanning a spectrum from on-farm investments, such as livestock and crop diversification, to ecosystem-level interventions, large-scale infrastructures, and enabling services and governance mechanisms. These investments were strategically designed to address various climate risks, including droughts, floods, increased temperatures, and rainfall variability."}]},{"head":"CLASSIFICATION OF INVESTMENTS","index":4,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":311,"text":"To enhance understanding and facilitate aggregation, we categorized these investments based on two main criteria. The first classification links to the nature of the climate response, such as ecosystem-based, technology and infrastructure, behavioral-cultural, and institutional. In the context of agriculture, ecosystem-based responses aim to utilize and enhance natural ecosystems and processes that support agriculture systems, enabling them to respond to climate risks and impacts. Examples include, among others, sustainable land management, ecosystem restoration, intercropping, mulching, etc. Technology and infrastructure responses refer to physical structures aimed at minimizing/ reducing exposure or sensitivity to climate risks and impacts and building adaptive capacity. Examples include, among others: irrigation systems, dams, farm equipment and machinery, etc. Behavioral-cultural refer to changes in behavior to address climate risks and impacts, such as adoption of improved crop varieties, shifting farming to new suitable areas, farm or household income diversification. Institutional responses refer to policies, programs, regulations, and services to support smallholder farmers, such as finance and risk management instruments, extension services, climate information. This categorization was also used in analyses for the Sixth Assessment Report of the International Panel for Climate Change (AR6 IPCC) (IPCC, 2022) and a recent systematic review of the scientific literature on adaptation (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021). The second categorization refers to the scope of the investment: on-farm versus off-farm. On-farm refers to changes in practices or technology use made directly within the farming operation, such as acquiring new equipment, improving irrigation systems, or investing in soil fertility. Off-farm investments refer to services, products, technologies and policies that aim to support farm operations, such as financial services, risk management products or market regulations. This process yielded 15 investment types, comprising five off-farm and ten on-farm investment and referring to different types of responses (see Table 1). This document presents 12 of these 15 investments -the remaining three ones will be added in future versions."}]},{"head":"Table 1. Overview of investment types","index":5,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"INVESTMENT","index":6,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"ECOSYSTEM-BASED TECHNOLOGY/ INFRASTRUCTURE","index":7,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"BEHAVIORAL/","index":8,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"CULTURAL INSTITUTIONAL","index":9,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"ON-FARM OFF-FARM","index":10,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":7,"text":"Farm adjustments based on advisory X X"},{"index":2,"size":5,"text":"Improved livestock breeds X X"},{"index":3,"size":5,"text":"Improved feeds and feeding strategies"},{"index":4,"size":16,"text":"Weather and Climate Information Services X X *investments not included in this version of the compendium."}]},{"head":"DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT PATHWAYS","index":11,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":90,"text":"For each of the identified investment type, we constructed simple graphical diagrams using open-source software (i.e., diagram.io). The graphics represent systems thinking tools used to elucidate complex interactions between variables and underlying relationships between them. We used thematic analysis, employing inductive coding, to establish coding schemes which informed the models. We iteratively updated these schemes to capture emerging themes and categories. The resultant graphic models inform the selection of adequate indicators and metrics to enable tracking, which, in turn, will help to determine progress and effectiveness of investments over time."},{"index":2,"size":193,"text":"Each pathway delineates critical linkages between its elements, i.e., the adaptation rationale, programmatic actions, and desired outcomes and impacts. The adaptation rationale assesses climate-related hazards, determining necessary actions and desired impacts. Programmatic actions encompass the steps and considerations required to facilitate the adoption and sustained use of a product, service, or practice. Outcomes typically revolve around changes in behavior, attitude, skill, knowledge, or practice of smallholder farmers. In most cases, these refer to adoption/use of products/ services/ practices/ technologies. Impacts represent effects on agricultural, environmental, and social systems. Initial impacts mostly refer to changes in agricultural system functionality (e.g., soil conditions, water use efficiency, agricultural biomass) and agricultural operations (e.g., labor involved), which have follow-on effects on agricultural system performance (production, yield, yield stability) and farm economy (e.g., production costs). These have cumulative effects on the society (e.g., food sovereignty), local economy, and on producers' wellbeing (e.g., income, quality of life, migration). It is important to note that the figure does not make any assumption on the direction of the change, i.e., whether there is a positive or a negative increase in the impact variable. This will have to be determined with data."}]},{"head":"DATA SOURCES FOR PATHWAY DEVELOPMENT","index":12,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":75,"text":"The development of the graphical diagrams drew upon multiple data sources. Primary among these were the CSAIPs, providing essential secondary data. Additionally, we drew on systematic reviews relevant to specific adaptation investments, prioritizing studies focused on Africa or multiple countries, and peer-reviewed publications that utilized long-term (panel) data, were utilized. Expert judgment contributed to enriching the pathway development process. For select cases, such as conservation agriculture, stakeholder validation was conducted in Morocco, ensuring real-world applicability."}]},{"head":"STAKEHOLDER VALIDATION","index":13,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":82,"text":"In the case of conservation agriculture, stakeholder validation was conducted in Morocco to enhance the real-world applicability of the pathway. This involved soliciting feedback and insights from relevant stakeholders engaged in promoting conservation agriculture in the country, such as government, non-government, private sector and farmer organization representatives. This helped ensure that the pathways align with policy priorities, practical considerations and the on-the-ground context. The pathways presented in this document are a result of this stakeholder validation process, emphasizing their relevance and applicability."}]},{"head":"DATA DOCUMENTATION AND METHODOLOGICAL ITERATIONS","index":14,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":32,"text":"All information compiled during this process is housed in a living data catalogue, detailing connections between causal and effect variables. This open-source database will be publicly available upon completion of all pathways."},{"index":2,"size":52,"text":"It is essential to underscore that this document is an evolving work in progress. As we continue refining and iterating upon the pathways, additional insights and refinements to the methodology may be incorporated. The document's dynamic nature aligns with the evolving landscape of agricultural adaptation, ensuring its relevance and applicability over time."}]},{"head":"IMPACT PATHWAYS FOR OFF-FARM ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS","index":15,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICES (WCIS)","index":16,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":68,"text":"Weather and Climate Information Services play an important role in African smallholder agriculture. They inform adjustment of farm strategies in response to climate risks such as choice of fields, crops, and/or crop varieties, timing of agricultural tasks, application of inputs, and the negotiation of annual loans, among others. These farm strategies largely depend on the type of WCIS -seasonal forecasts or daily weather information (Vaughan et al., 2019)."},{"index":2,"size":290,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 1) revolves around the production, availability, access to and use of WCIS by smallholder African farmers. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines why adaptation is needed and informs required actions and desired impacts. Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps to co-produce accurate, relevant, and usable forecasts, as well as to make them accessible to farmers. Here, multi-stakeholder groups, integration of local and indigenous knowledge -, trainings and partnerships for bulletin dissemination are critical elements for co-production, access and use of WCIS. The impact pathway also depicts other factors that might affect uptake of WCIS (white dotted boxes), such as context (demographic characteristics, region, agroecological zone, culture), access to agricultural advice, and access to inputs. Outcomes (grey boxes) refer to the actual use of WCIS in adjusting farm decisions and strategies, as well as the empowerment of local community members through improved data and leadership skills. Impacts (yellow boxes) refer to changes in agronomic performance (crop production, yields), socioeconomic variables (incomes, returns), as well as human and animal safety. Depending on the farm strategy adopted in combination with WCIS, additional impacts might be achieved, such as changes in ecosystem function or other agri-and socio-economic gains. Lastly, climate risk assessments will help to determine whether performance on these impact variables has contributed to reduced impact of climate risks on smallholder agriculture. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of WCIS, independent from the quality and type of the WCIS. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"AGRI-ADVISORY","index":17,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":49,"text":"Agricultural advisory services are critical for supporting adaptation of African smallholder farmers, who need to optimize agricultural practices for improved yields and resilience to climate shocks and changes. While gaps in access to timely and relevant information persist, many efforts are underway to enhance digital and traditional advisory methods."},{"index":2,"size":312,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 2) revolves around the production, availability, access to and use of agricultural advice by smallholder African farmers. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines key climate vulnerabilities and risks that would be mitigated with improved access and use agri-advisory. Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps required for the co-production, development and dissemination of relevant and timely agriadvisory services. One key activity is the development of Decision Support Tools (DST) that draw on multiple sources of knowledge to ensure context-fit and usable advice for smallholder farmers. Training programs that equip farmers and extension service providers and farmer group leaders to effectively use these DSTs and further disseminate the advice. Agricultural advice is generated based on these insights, considering factors like telecom asset availability and demographics. Delivery of agro-advisory can occur directly through extension agents or service providers to farmers (through farm visits) or to groups of farmers (farm field schools, demo plots); but also through farmer-tofarmer trainings. Outcomes refer to farmers using this advice, which might be further influenced by farmers' access to land and inputs. Impacts span increased farm production (crops and livestock), elevated income from diversified revenue streams, and improved profitability due to reduced production costs practices. Depending on the farm strategy adopted in combination with the agricultural advice, additional impacts might be achieved. Lastly, climate risk assessments will help to determine whether performance on these impact variables has contributed to reduced impact of climate risks on smallholder agriculture. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of agri-advisory services, independent from the quality and type of the agricultural advice. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"AGRICULTURE FINANCE PRODUCTS: CREDIT, LOAN","index":18,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":62,"text":"Access to agriculture finance is critical for enabling farmers' ability to invest in improved inputs, technology, and sustainable practices. Access to credit and loans facilitate farmers' capacity to expand operations and respond effectively to climate risks and market dynamics. Gaps in financial inclusion persist, underscoring the need for tailored and innovative finance solutions to bolster the resilience and productivity of smallholder agriculture."},{"index":2,"size":267,"text":"The impact pathway illustrated below (Figure 3) shows how the development, dissemination, and use of financial products (credit, loan) for smallholder farmers in Africa can lead to improved farm production, income, and other positive impacts. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines the climate vulnerabilities and risks that the financial products should respond to. Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps necessary for the development and dissemination of the finance products. These include identification of farmers' needs and risks; development of products that meet these needs; awareness raising to ensure smallholder farmers' familiarity with the financial products available. Partnerships are essential for the successful development, dissemination, and use of financial products for smallholder farmers in Africa. Outcomes (grey boxes) refer to farmers' use of these products, which allows them to make additional investments on the farm, such as purchase of inputs, of new technologies, and improvement of land management practices. The use of financial products allows farmers to be more resilient to climate shocks and market volatility and increase their ability to plan. These impacts (yellow boxes) translate in improved production and/or production expansion despite climate risks, which can contribute to increased incomes, farm profitability (depending also on production costs) and food security. Lastly, climate risk assessments will help to determine whether performance on these impact variables has contributed to reduced impact of climate risks on smallholder agriculture. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"AGRICULTURE RISK MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTS: WEATHER-BASED INDEX INSURANCE","index":19,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":52,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 4) revolves around the production, availability, access to and use of weather-based index insurances (WBII) by smallholder African farmers. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines the key vulnerabilities and risks experiences by smallholder farmers, which informs required actions and desired impacts."},{"index":2,"size":296,"text":"Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps required to design and disseminate the insurance product. Information from the risk assessment is used to design the index insurance product. This must be based on a reliable measure of farmers' risks and be affordable to farmers. The thresholds should be set at levels that are relevant to farmers' needs and that minimize the risk of fraud. The payout structure should be designed to provide farmers with adequate financial protection without being so high that it makes the product unaffordable. Partnerships are essential for the successful implementation of index insurance. Meteorological agencies provide the data that is used to calculate the weather index and assess claims. Remote sensing providers can provide data on vegetation and other crop conditions. Other stakeholders, such as government agencies, NGOs, and financial institutions, can play a critical role in disseminating the product to farmers. Product dissemination to farmers needs to prioritize comprehension and ease of making claims. Index insurance payouts to farmers, triggered by weather events, represent the primary outcome (yellow box). Upon receipt of the payout, farmers can minimize the impact of weather events on their farm and livelihoods and thus increase their resilience. These impacts (yellow boxes) can be reflected through reduced income volatility, as index insurance can help farmers to smooth out their income over time and reduce farmers' reliance on debt to maintain their livelihoods; improved production and incomes, as index insurance can give farmers the confidence to invest in their farms, knowing that they have a financial safety net in place. These positive impacts can help to keep farmers on their farms and thus reduce rural-urban migration, even in the face of adverse weather events. Other impacts of index insurance may depend on how farmers use the payouts they receive. "}]},{"head":"AGRICULTURE INPUT SUPPLY CHAINS: SEEDS, FEEDS, FERTILIZER","index":20,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":61,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathways in Figures 5a-c revolves around the production, availability, access to and use of agricultural inputs by smallholder African farmers. The pathways illustrate how agricultural inputs like seeds, feeds, and fertilizers can create positive impacts on the lives of smallholder farmers in Africa. While each pathway has unique elements, key themes emerge when examined holistically."},{"index":2,"size":269,"text":"The starting point for each pathway is a climate risk assessment or the adaptation rationale (blue box), acknowledging the specific challenges facing farmers and communities and informing the development of appropriate solutions. This assessment also considers context-specific factors such as demographics, cultural practices, and existing infrastructure, which can influence access and uptake of agricultural inputs. The core of each pathway involves several actions (white boxes) related to the development and release of improved agricultural inputs, tailored to address the identified climate risks and adapt to local context. This involves various interventions like breeding climate-resilient seeds, formulating specialized fertilizers, and designing high-nutrient feeds. Once released, the improved inputs must be readily available on the market through efficient distribution networks. Farmers then require access to the knowledge and resources necessary to utilize these inputs effectively. This includes training programs on best practices for planting, fertilization, and animal management. Farmers' use of these inputs represents the key outcome (grey boxes) from these efforts. The goal is to generate positive impacts (yellow boxes) across various dimensions of smallholder farmers' lives. These include improved soil health, enhanced crop production and incomes, boosted livestock health and productivity. These benefits ultimately contribute to increased food security and nutrition and improved livelihoods and resilience for smallholder farming communities across Africa. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of seeds, independent of their quality and type. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"Figure 5b. Impact pathway for improved feeds in Africa","index":21,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":57,"text":"Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of feeds, independent of their quality and type. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"Figure 5c. Impact pathway for improved fertilizer in Africa.","index":22,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":57,"text":"Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of fertilizer, independent of their quality and type. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"IMPACT PATHWAYS FOR ON-FARM ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS","index":23,"paragraphs":[]},{"head":"CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE","index":24,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":118,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 6) revolves around adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) strategies by smallholder African farmers, with a specific emphasis on Moroccan agriculture. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines key vulnerabilities and risks that will be mitigated/ reduced through the widespread adoption of conservation agriculture. This involves implementing a range of actions (white boxes) that will improve access to necessary inputs like seeds, fertilizers, and machinery, as well as enhance extension services and information sharing about CA techniques. Other actions include enhancing access to financing options and markets for non-cereal crops, encouraging farm diversification. Supportive policies will further incentivize farmers to intensify and diversify their farms and integrate crop-livestock systems."},{"index":2,"size":82,"text":"The key outcome (grey boxes) of these actions is widespread and sustained adoption of CA. This means farmers will transition from traditional practices to a set of strategies that ensure farm resilience and sustainability. These strategies include minimal soil disturbance, maintaining organic soil cover, and diversifying crops. While the ideal outcome is full adoption of the entire CA package, evidence suggests that many farmers adopt strategies piecemeal, gradually, or incrementally. Therefore, the pathway acknowledges both full package adoption and individual strategy adoption."},{"index":3,"size":104,"text":"The impacts of CA adoption are expected to ripple across agricultural, environmental, and social systems. Initial impacts will manifest in changes within the agricultural system itself, such as improved soil conditions, water use efficiency, and agricultural biomass. These changes will then have positive consequences for agricultural operations, leading to increased production, yield stability, and farm profitability. The cumulative effect of these improvements will contribute to enhanced food sovereignty, a stronger local economy, and improved well-being for farmers, including increased income and quality of life. Importantly, the pathway acknowledges the need for further data analysis to determine the exact direction and extent of these impacts."}]},{"head":"FARM ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON ADVISORY: PLANTING DATES, CULTIVARS, FERTILIZER","index":25,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":166,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway in Figure 7 revolves around adjustments of farm management strategies, based on access to climate and agriculture advice and inputs. The starting point is the adaptation rationale, which outlines why adaptation is needed and informs required actions and desired impacts. Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps required for facilitating adoption of enhanced farm strategy by smallholder farmers. By accessing accurate and timely information about weather forecasts (See also Figure 1) or pest & disease alerts, farmers can adjust their strategies. This might involve planting dates shifted to avoid droughts, choosing drought-resistant crop varieties, or implementing improved water management practices. Agri-advisory services (See also Figure 2) also play a crucial role in this process. They offer tailored advice on climate-smart practices, input use efficiency, and market trends, further enhancing farmers' knowledge and decision-making capacity. A key outcome is represented by farmers' shift towards improved practices (grey box), based on informed, relevant, and timely advice and on access to adequate inputs."},{"index":2,"size":60,"text":"Impacts (yellow boxes) include improved input use efficiency translates to optimized resource utilization, reduced costs, and minimized environmental impact. Additionally, enhanced climate resilience leads to reduced crop losses and maintained productivity, even in the face of climate challenges. As crop and livestock production increase, farmers experience a boost in food security. Their households benefit from improved nutrition and reduced vulnerability."},{"index":3,"size":79,"text":"Increased production also opens up market access opportunities, potentially leading to higher incomes and farm profitability. However, some farm adjustments may also impact labor requirements and human and animal safety in complex ways. For example, adopting new technologies or practices might increase labor needs, potentially leading to higher costs or changing labor dynamics within households. Certain adaptation strategies, like introducing new crop varieties or pesticides, could raise concerns about human and animal health if not implemented safely and responsibly. "}]},{"head":"AGROFORESTRY","index":26,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":43,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 8) revolves around the use and management of companion trees and crops by smallholder African farmers. The adaptation rationale identifies the climate vulnerabilities and risks to be mitigated through implementation and management of agroforestry systems."},{"index":2,"size":93,"text":"Actions (white boxes) delineate the steps required for scaling use of agroforestry systems. Farmer groups, established through collaborations, become hubs for knowledge sharing and collective action, empowering communities to implement these practices effectively. Training workshops equip farmers with the skills needed to manage their agroforestry systems, from tree selection and planting to pruning and harvesting. Access to climate-and locally-adapted seeds and seedlings (See Figures 5a-b on improved inputs impact pathway) is critical for ensuring farmers' uptake and successful management of agroforestry systems (outcome in grey box), and for achieving desired impacts (yellow boxes)."},{"index":3,"size":172,"text":"Trees on farms are notorious for their potential to bolster farm system resilience and improve ecosystem function that support enhanced farm production. When implemented correctly, agroforestry systems can enhance soil health, facilitating water retention and preventing erosion. The integration of trees alongside crops facilitates increased biodiversity (i.e., pollinators, natural predators), fostering a balance that can enhance overall crop health and productivity. The presence of trees also influences microclimates, offering shade and windbreaks that can protect crops from extreme weather conditions. Crop-tree diversification also provides farmers with additional sources of income, contributing to overall household income and acting as a risk mitigation strategy in the face of crop failures or market fluctuations. Agroforestry systems can also increase labor demand (and hence employment), which have implications on production costs and farm profitability in the short term. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"INTEGRATED SOIL FERTILITY MANAGEMENT","index":27,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":23,"text":"The central theme in the impact pathway (Figure 9) revolves around the adoption of integrated soul fertility management strategies by smallholder African farmers."},{"index":2,"size":86,"text":"The adaptation rationale (blue box) involves a thorough assessment of climate vulnerabilities, risks and impacts. It serves as the guiding force in tailoring soil fertility management plans, ensuring that strategies are intricately aligned with the specific climate challenges and vulnerabilities. The success of transitioning to ISFM, which represents the key outcome (grey box), hinges on various actions (white boxes), such as enhanced on-farm access to organic materials, enhances availability of inorganic fertilizers in the market (Figure 5c), and the accessibility of agricultural advisory services (Figure 2)."},{"index":3,"size":263,"text":"This shift initiates a cascade of interconnected impacts (yellow boxes). For example, ISFM can optimize the synergistic interaction between organic materials and inorganic fertilizers, ensuring more effective absorption and utilization of nutrients by crops and improving water quality linked to nutrient leakage. ISFM can increase soil health, which in turn enhances water use efficiency by promoting better water infiltration, reducing runoff, and enhancing water retention capacity in the soil; this ultimately ensures more effective water utilization by crops. Increased farm production from healthier soils and water use efficiency, coupled with reduced costs, elevates profitability. ISFM can also encourage diversified farm production, reducing reliance on monoculture and enhancing resilience to climate variability. The ripple effect is felt in improved food security, as the diverse crop portfolio contributes to a more robust and sustainable food supply, ensuring long-term agricultural viability for smallholder farmers. Organic inputs and improved germplasm, combined with the knowledge on how to adapt these practices to local conditions, aimed at maximizing agronomic use efficiency of the applied nutrients and improving crop productivity. All inputs need to be managed in accordance with sound agronomic principles. The integration of ISFM practices into farming systems is illustrated with the dual-purpose grain legume-maize rotations in the savannas and fertilizer micro-dosing in the Sahel. Finally, the dissemination of ISFM practices is discussed.\",\"container-title\":\"Better Crops with Plant Food\",\"language\":\"en\",\"note\":\"Accepted: 2014-09-24T08:42:22Z\",\"source\":\"cgspace.cgiar.org\",\"title\":\"Integrated soil fertility management: an operational definition and consequences for implementation and dissemination\",\"title-short\":\"Integrated soil fertility management\",\"URL\":\"https://cgspace. cgiar.org/handle/10568/43596\",\"author\":[{\"family\":\"Vanlauwe\",\"given\":\"Bernard\"},{\"family\":\"Zingore\",\"given\":\"Shamie\"}],\"acc essed\":{\"date-parts\": [[\"2023\",12,8]]},\"issued\":{\"date-parts\":[[\"2011\"]]},\"citation-key\":\"Vanlauwe2011\"}},{\"id\":4693,\"uris\":[\"ht tp://zotero.org/users/8082260/items/DNBIAKEZ\"],\"itemData\":{\"id\":4693,\"type\":\"article-journal\",\"abstract\":\"Intensification of smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is necessary to address rural poverty and natural resource degradation. Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM."},{"index":4,"size":38,"text":"Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"IMPROVED CROP VARIETIES (CLIMATE-AND LOCALLY ADAPTED)","index":28,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":28,"text":"The impact pathway on improved crop varieties (Figure 10) revolves around the development, availability, access to and use of climate-and locally adapted crop varieties by smallholder African farmers."},{"index":2,"size":130,"text":"The adaptation rationale (blue box) informs the development of climate-adapted crop varieties. A comprehensive understanding of climate risks guides scientists and breeders in establishing selection criteria, prioritizing traits such as heat tolerance or drought resistance to address specific challenges. By incorporating these traits through various breeding techniques, the adaptation rationale ensures the creation of resilient crop varieties tailored to thrive under harsh climate conditions or after climate shocks. Several actions and factors (white boxes) determine farmers' ability and willingness to switch to improved crop varieties (outcome). These factors are also explained in detail in previous impact pathways and refer to: farmers' access to weather and climate information (Figure 1), to agronomic advice on crop management (Figure 2), to finance (Figure 3) and risk management products such as insurance (Figure 4)."},{"index":3,"size":170,"text":"Impacts are highlighted in yellow boxes. For instance, drought-resistant crops reduce water demand for agriculture. This not only conserves water resources, thus increasing water use efficiency, but also enhances the sustainability of farming practices in water-scarce regions. Improved crop varieties contribute to increased crop production through traits such as disease resistance, higher yields, and shorter maturity periods, thereby bolstering overall food production. Moreover, these varieties might result in lower production costs by reducing the need for expensive inputs like pesticides and fertilizers. The enhanced productivity, coupled with cost savings, contributes to increased income for farmers, improving profitability and fostering economically sustainable livelihoods. As farmers experience improved financial returns and greater food production, the adoption of improved crop varieties plays a crucial role in enhancing food security at both individual and community levels. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"IMPROVED LIVESTOCK BREEDS (CLIMATE-AND LOCALLY ADAPTED)","index":29,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":67,"text":"The impact pathway on improved livestock breeds (Figure 11) illustrates how the use of livestock breeds tailored to local climatic conditions can bolsters farmers' capacity to adapt to climate change and variability, fostering a more resilient agricultural system. This proactive approach not only addresses the immediate need for adaptation but also contributes to broader socio-economic improvements, creating a pathway towards sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for smallholder farmers."},{"index":2,"size":302,"text":"The adaptation rationale (blue box) serves as a crucial foundation for the impact pathway, informing the development of climate-adapted breeds. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the specific challenges posed by climate change in a particular region or ecosystem. By identifying the key stressors, such as temperature fluctuations, water scarcity, or emerging diseases, the adaptation rationale guides the selection criteria for breeding programs. Several actions and factors (white boxes) determine farmers' ability and willingness to switch to improved livestock breeds (outcome). These factors are also explained in detail in previous impact pathways and refer to: availability of improved breeds on the market and farmers' ability to purchase them (Figure 11), farmers' access to agronomic advice on livestock management (Figure 2), adequate access to feed (Figure 5c), finance (Figure 3); or other contextual factors, such as demographics, socio-economic characteristics, geography. In terms of impacts (yellow boxes), locally adapted livestock breeds play a pivotal role in enhancing farm production in the face of climate change. These breeds are better suited to withstand regional environmental conditions, exhibiting resilience to temperature fluctuations, water scarcity, and emerging diseases. As a result, farm production becomes more reliable, contributing to increased yields and improved food security. Moreover, the use of locally adapted livestock breeds influences farm costs. Whie they may require higher up-front investment for farmers, these breeds are often more disease-resistant and require less intensive management, reducing the need for expensive veterinary interventions and feed supplements. Consequently, smallholders can experience a decline in production costs, allowing for a more sustainable and economically viable farming model, ultimately leading to improved livelihoods. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative)."}]},{"head":"IMPROVED FEEDS AND FEEDING STRATEGIES","index":30,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":143,"text":"The impact pathway on improved feed and feeding strategies (Figure 12) delineates how farmers transitioning to enhanced feed practices can significantly improve livestock productivity and resilience. The adaptation rationale (blue box) often derived from a climate risk assessment, serves as a critical compass for extension agents and service providers to tailor feeding practices to specific needs. For instance, in areas prone to drought, the adaptation rationale may emphasize drought-resistant forage crops or alternative feeding methods to ensure sustained livestock productivity despite water scarcity. The adoption of improved feeding strategies represents the key outcome (grey box). This hinges significantly on multiple actions (white boxes), such as enhancing availability and access to on-farm feeds, as smallholder farmers rely heavily on locally sourced resources. Access to agricultural advisory services plays a pivotal role, providing farmers with the knowledge and guidance required to implement effective feeding practices."},{"index":2,"size":31,"text":"Additionally, the availability and accessibility of improved feeds in the market are crucial factors, as farmers need a reliable supply chain to procure the necessary inputs for optimizing their livestock nutrition."},{"index":3,"size":150,"text":"Adoption of improved feeding strategies has multiple impacts (yellow boxes). Targeted nutrition and optimized feeding regimes enhance feeding efficiency and livestock productivity, leading to faster growth rates and increased yields. This addresses food security concerns by bolstering the availability of animal-sourced protein for local consumption and sale. Livestock health is also tied to the quality and nutritional content of their diet. The implementation of advanced feeding strategies also has a cascading effect on farm costs. While initial investments may be required for the adoption of these practices, the long-term benefits are evident in reduced feed wastage and enhanced resource utilization, resulting in overall cost savings for smallholder farmers. The economic impact extends to income and livelihoods as well. Improved livestock productivity translates into higher marketable surpluses, leading to increased income for smallholder farmers. This positive economic shift empowers farming communities, creating a ripple effect on various aspects of rural livelihoods. "}]},{"head":"FINAL CONSIDERATIONS","index":31,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":47,"text":"This document synthesizes key impact pathways for adaptation in the agricultural sector, aiming to guide practitioners in designing and implementing effective interventions. These pathways are not intended to be definitive solutions, but rather serve as starting points for adaptation strategies customized to specific contexts and stakeholder needs."},{"index":2,"size":27,"text":"To advance this work, three key considerations are paramount: integrating diverse knowledge sources, testing and validating proposed pathways, and transforming this compendium into a living knowledge base."}]},{"head":"INTEGRATING MULTIPLE SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE.","index":32,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":103,"text":"Developing a robust impact pathway requires incorporating diverse knowledge sources. Tools like the Climate Risk Planning & Managing Tool for Development Programmes in Agri-food Systems (CRISP) (Gosling et al., 2022)\"number\":\"CIAT Publication No. 531\",\"page\":\"44\",\"publisher\":\"International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT1 or the Agriculture Adaptation Atlas2, which draw on the latest science, can provide valuable insights into the development of the adaptation rationale/risk assessment. However, it is crucial to include the perspectives of local stakeholders, including farmers and local communities, to validate the pathway and ensure it is grounded in lived realities. A participatory approach involving all relevant actors will enhance the pathway's legitimacy and effectiveness."}]},{"head":"TESTING TO COLLECT THE EVIDENCE.","index":33,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":104,"text":"Merely co-designing impact pathways with stakeholders is insufficient to ensure the achievement of desired outcomes and impacts. Rigorous testing is crucial to determine the validity and effectiveness of proposed interventions, including understanding the direction (increase or decrease) of any anticipated changes. This requires establishing clear indicators, data collection protocols, and robust data systems that capture not only the magnitude of change but also its direction. Integrating historical data, climate projections, and real-time field data provides a comprehensive picture of progress and enables adjustments as needed. Without such testing mechanisms, the potential for achieving intended impacts remains uncertain, and negative unintended consequences may arise undetected."}]},{"head":"DEVELOPING A LIVING KNOWLEDGE BASE FOR IMPROVED LEARNING.","index":34,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":82,"text":"The current compendium represents a valuable resource, but its effectiveness can be amplified by transforming it into a dynamic and constantly evolving knowledge platform. This necessitates fostering a community of practitioners and researchers who actively contribute to its update and refinement. This could facilitate a collaborative knowledgesharing process, ensuring the compendium remains relevant and responsive to evolving needs and insights. By harnessing the collective intelligence of the community, the compendium can evolve into a powerful tool for advancing impactful climate-resilient agricultural practices."}]},{"head":"ACKNOWLEDGMENTS","index":35,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":172,"text":"This report builds upon collaborations between scientists at the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT and various partners. The initial concept of using impact pathways for measuring and tracking adaptation in African agriculture was developed under the Accelerating CGIAR Climate Research in Africa (AICCRA) Program. Development and documentation of these pathways were further supported by the CGIAR initiatives Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) for crop-focused components and Livestock and Climate (LCSR) for livestock-focused components. The impact pathway on conservation agriculture in Morocco was validated with stakeholders through a collaboration with the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (INRA). All pathways informed the development of the African Agriculture Adaptation Tracking Platform, a collaborative effort between the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT, the AAA Initiative Foundation for Adaptation in African Agriculture (AAA), with funding from the German Agency for Internal Cooperation (GiZ) through the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA). This platform promotes and scales the use of pathways for improved adaptation decision-making across the African continent."},{"index":2,"size":12,"text":"This report was edited for clarity with Chat GPT and Bard Experiment."}]},{"head":"FUNDING","index":36,"paragraphs":[{"index":1,"size":21,"text":"Funding for developing this report was provided through the CGIAR Initiatives on Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) and Livestock and Climate (L&C)."}]}],"figures":[{"text":"Figure 1 . Figure 1. Impact pathway for weather and climate information services in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of WCIS, independent from the quality and type of the WCIS. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 2 . Figure 2. Impact pathway for agri-advisory services in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of agri-advisory services, independent from the quality and type of the agricultural advice. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 3 . Figure 3. Impact pathway for agricultural finance products in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 4 . Figure 4. Impact pathway for weather-based index insurances in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 5a . Figure 5a. Impact pathway for improved seed systems in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Dotted boxes represent factors that may also affect access and uptake of seeds, independent of their quality and type. Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 6 . Figure 6. Impact pathway for conservation agriculture in Africa (Morocco) Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 7 . Figure 7. Impact pathway for farm adjustments based on agro-climate advice and inputs.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 8 . Figure 8. Impact pathway for agroforestry in Africa. "},{"text":"Figure 9 . Figure 9. Impact pathway for integrated soil fertility management in AfricaOrganic inputs and improved germplasm, combined with the knowledge on how to adapt these practices to local conditions, aimed at maximizing agronomic use efficiency of the applied nutrients and improving crop productivity. All inputs need to be managed in accordance with sound agronomic principles. The integration of ISFM practices into farming systems is illustrated with the dual-purpose grain legume-maize rotations in the savannas and fertilizer micro-dosing in the Sahel. Finally, the dissemination of ISFM practices is discussed.\",\"container-title\":\"Better Crops with Plant Food\",\"language\":\"en\",\"note\":\"Accepted: 2014-09-24T08:42:22Z\",\"source\":\"cgspace.cgiar.org\",\"title\":\"Integrated soil fertility management: an operational definition and consequences for implementation and dissemination\",\"title-short\":\"Integrated soil fertility management\",\"URL\":\"https://cgspace. cgiar.org/handle/10568/43596\",\"author\":[{\"family\":\"Vanlauwe\",\"given\":\"Bernard\"},{\"family\":\"Zingore\",\"given\":\"Shamie\"}],\"acc essed\":{\"date-parts\":[[\"2023\",12,8]]},\"issued\":{\"date-parts\":[[\"2011\"]]},\"citation-key\":\"Vanlauwe2011\"}},{\"id\":4693,\"uris\":[\"ht tp://zotero.org/users/8082260/items/DNBIAKEZ\"],\"itemData\":{\"id\":4693,\"type\":\"article-journal\",\"abstract\":\"Intensification of smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is necessary to address rural poverty and natural resource degradation. Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM. "},{"text":"Figure 10 . Figure 10. Impact pathway for use of improved crop varieties in Africa. "},{"text":"Figure 11 . Figure 11. Impact pathway for use of improved livestock breeds in Africa.Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "},{"text":"Figure 12 . Figure12. Impact pathway for use of improved feeds and feeding strategies in Africa. Elements of the impact pathway are differentiated by colors as follows: adaptation rationale (blue); actions (white); outcomes (grey) and impacts (yellow). Arrows denote linkages between pathway elements. They do not suggest the type of linkage (positive or negative). "}],"sieverID":"86835666-a2f9-49d6-8ffc-bdb0eab41df0","abstract":""} |