Planning the supply of aged care services: It's time to talk denominators.
OBJECTIVES
This paper explores how changes in demography, service use and the aged care system have implications for the appropriateness of the denominator in the aged care provision ratio.


METHODS
Official statistics were analysed to create five alternative scenarios for residential care planning in a 2000-2027 time series.


RESULTS
The four age-based denominators and a revised denominator incorporating age- and sex-specific disability rates generated diverse levels of absolute supply. The 75+ denominator produced 1400 fewer beds than the 70+ denominator by 2018, but over 14 000 additional beds by 2027.


CONCLUSION
The 70+ based ratio developed almost forty years ago has served its purpose reasonably well. However, changes in the nature of the aged care system, different patterns of use by age and sex, and demographic changes suggest that long-term aged care planning requires careful review in choosing a more robust version of the provision ratio for the future.
['Gibson|Diane|D|']
D000368:Aged D003695:Delivery of Health Care D005260:Female D005544:Forecasting D006801:Humans D008297:Male
planning supply aged care ratios