The effects of changing meteorological parameters on fatal aortic catastrophes.
BACKGROUND
Over the span of the last decade, medical research has been increasingly putting greater emphasis on the study of meteorological parameters due to their connection to cardiovascular diseases. The main goal of this study was to explore the relationship between fatal aortic catastrophes and changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature.


METHODS
We used a Cox process model to quantify the effects of environmental factors on sudden deaths resulting from aortic catastrophes. We used transfer entropy to draw conclusion about the causal connection between mortality and meteorological parameters. Our main tool was a computer program which we developed earlier in order to evaluate the relationship between pulmonary embolism mortality and weather on data sets comprised of aortic aneurysm (AA) and acute aortic dissection (AAD) cases, where one of these two medical conditions had led to fatal rupture of the aorta. Our source for these cases were the autopsy databases of Semmelweis University, from the time period of 1994 to 2014. We have examined 160 aneurysm and 130 dissection cases in relation to changes in meteorological parameters. The algorythm implemented in our program is based on a non-parametric a Cox process model. It is capable of splitting slowly varying unknown global trends from fluctuations potentially caused by weather. Furthermore, it allows us to explore complex non-linear interactions between meteorological parameters and mortality.


RESULTS
Model measures the relative growth of the expected number of events on the nth day caused by the deviation of environmental parameters from its mean value. The connection between ruptured aortic aneurysms (rAA) and changes in atmospheric pressure is more significant than their connection with mean daily temperatures. With an increase in atmospheric pressure, the rate of rAA mortality also increased. The effects of meteorological parameters were weaker for deaths resulting from acute aortic dissections (AAD), although low mean daily temperatures increased the intensity of occurrence for AAD-related deaths.


CONCLUSION
The occurrence rate of fatal aortic catastrophes showed a slight dependence on the two examined parameters within our groups.
['Szilágyi|Brigitta|B|0000-0002-2566-0465', 'Berczeli|Márton|M|', 'Lovas|Attila|A|', 'Oláh|Zoltán|Z|', 'Törő|Klára|K|', 'Sótonyi|Péter|P|']
D000368:Aged D000465:Algorithms D000784:Aneurysm, Dissecting D001014:Aortic Aneurysm D001019:Aortic Rupture D001274:Atmospheric Pressure D005260:Female D006801:Humans D006814:Hungary D008297:Male D008875:Middle Aged D012189:Retrospective Studies D018570:Risk Assessment D012307:Risk Factors D012621:Seasons D013696:Temperature D013997:Time Factors
Cox process model Acute aortic dissection Ruptured aortic aneurysm Non-parametric approach Statistical learning