Complementary role of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram to the American Joint Committee on Cancer system for the prediction of relapse of major salivary gland carcinoma after surgery.
BACKGROUND
The purpose of this study was to test the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram in predicting recurrence risk of major salivary gland carcinoma in an Asian cohort.


METHODS
We retrospectively enrolled 149 patients who had undergone intended curative resections for major salivary gland carcinoma between 2007 and 2012. The performance of the MSKCC nomogram and the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) seventh staging system in predicting recurrence risk was compared.


RESULTS
The MSKCC nomogram and the AJCC staging system both accurately predicted the 5-year recurrence probabilities, with the concordance index (c-index = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.89 vs c-index, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.68-0.87; p = .45) in patients with major salivary gland carcinomas after curative surgeries. Comparing to the actual observed events, the calibration plot indicated that the MSKCC nomogram accurately estimated the recurrence in low-risk groups but tended to overestimate in high-risk groups. When using the MSKCC nomogram to predict the 5-year recurrence-free probability in each AJCC stage, the prediction was very good for patients with AJCC stages I and II disease (c-index = 0.92 and 0.90, respectively) and modest for those of AJCC stages III and IVa (c-index = 0.51 and 0.62, respectively).


CONCLUSION
The MSKCC nomogram and the AJCC staging system each had its value in predicting recurrence of major salivary gland cancers. When using the MSKCC nomogram to predict the 5-year recurrence-free probability in each AJCC stage, the MSKCC nomogram was more accurate in predicting recurrence risks in those patients with AJCC stage I and II diseases than those with late-stage diseases. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 39: 860-867, 2017.
['Chou|Wen-Chi|WC|', 'Chang|Kai-Ping|KP|0000-0003-1777-9578', 'Lu|Chang-Hsien|CH|', 'Chen|Miao-Fen|MF|', 'Cheng|Yu-Fan|YF|', 'Yeh|Kun-Yun|KY|', 'Wang|Cheng-Hsu|CH|', 'Lin|Yung-Chang|YC|', 'Yeh|Ta-Sen|TS|']
D000293:Adolescent D000328:Adult D000368:Aged D000369:Aged, 80 and over D044466:Asians D002277:Carcinoma D002648:Child D005260:Female D006801:Humans D008297:Male D008875:Middle Aged D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local D009367:Neoplasm Staging D049451:Nomograms D011237:Predictive Value of Tests D012189:Retrospective Studies D018570:Risk Assessment D012307:Risk Factors D012468:Salivary Gland Neoplasms D055815:Young Adult
nomogram major salivary gland carcinoma American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system relapse-free survival validation