Age-specific prevalence of diagnosed systemic lupus erythematosus in Germany 2002 and projection to 2030.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this report is to estimate the prevalence and future number of cases of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Germany.


METHODS
Data from a representative sample of all insurants from the statutory health insurance in Germany comprising more than 2.3 million individuals have been screened for SLE diagnoses. The gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE is calculated. The case definition is based on at least one recorded diagnosis of SLE during 2002. The stratum-specific prevalence is applied to the current and the future population of Germany in order to estimate and predict the number of people with SLE until 2030.


RESULTS
The overall prevalence of diagnosed SLE in 2002 was 15.4 (95% CI: 13.1-17.9) and 55.4 (51.4, 59.8) per 100,000 in the male and female German population. This corresponds to an estimated 30,000 and 31,000 people with diagnosed SLE in 2002 and 2010, respectively. This number will slightly increase until 2020 and decrease thereafter.


CONCLUSIONS
Compared with health insurance data from France, the prevalence in our data is similar. Under the assumption that the gender- and age-specific prevalence of SLE in Germany will not change considerably, the number of cases in the next two decades will change only slightly.
['Brinks|R|R|', 'Fischer-Betz|R|R|', 'Sander|O|O|', 'Richter|J G|JG|', 'Chehab|G|G|', 'Schneider|M|M|']
D000293:Adolescent D000328:Adult D000367:Age Factors D000368:Aged D000369:Aged, 80 and over D002648:Child D002675:Child, Preschool D005260:Female D005544:Forecasting D005858:Germany D006801:Humans D007223:Infant D007231:Infant, Newborn D007348:Insurance, Health D008180:Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic D008297:Male D008875:Middle Aged D015995:Prevalence D012737:Sex Factors D055815:Young Adult
prevalence Systemic lupus erythematosus Germany projections and predictions