Modelling the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica in bovines using decision tree, logistic regression and GIS query approaches for Brazil.
Fascioliasis is a condition caused by the trematode Fasciola hepatica. In this paper, the spatial distribution of F. hepatica in bovines in Brazil was modelled using a decision tree approach and a logistic regression, combined with a geographic information system (GIS) query. In the decision tree and the logistic model, isothermality had the strongest influence on disease prevalence. Also, the 50-year average precipitation in the warmest quarter of the year was included as a risk factor, having a negative influence on the parasite prevalence. The risk maps developed using both techniques, showed a predicted higher prevalence mainly in the South of Brazil. The prediction performance seemed to be high, but both techniques failed to reach a high accuracy in predicting the medium and high prevalence classes to the entire country. The GIS query map, based on the range of isothermality, minimum temperature of coldest month, precipitation of warmest quarter of the year, altitude and the average dailyland surface temperature, showed a possibility of presence of F. hepatica in a very large area. The risk maps produced using these methods can be used to focus activities of animal and public health programmes, even on non-evaluated F. hepatica areas.
['Bennema|S C|SC|', 'Molento|M B|MB|http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0572-5628', 'Scholte|R G|RG|', 'Carvalho|O S|OS|', 'Pritsch|I|I|']
D063147:Animal Distribution D000818:Animals D001938:Brazil D002417:Cattle D002418:Cattle Diseases D002980:Climate D003663:Decision Trees D005210:Fasciola hepatica D005211:Fascioliasis D040362:Geographic Information Systems D016015:Logistic Models D008962:Models, Theoretical D015995:Prevalence D018570:Risk Assessment D012307:Risk Factors D062206:Spatial Analysis
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