Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan.
In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. The pre-lock down value of   is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. Using this analysis, we project the epidemic curve. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid-September, 2020, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700, 000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July, 2020, with the maximum active cases being around 120, 000. We note that social distancing measures and medication will help flatten the curve; however, without the reintroduction of further lock down, it would be very difficult to make   .
['Ali|Mohsin|M|', 'Imran|Mudassar|M|', 'Khan|Adnan|A|']
D050936:Basic Reproduction Number D000073640:Betacoronavirus D056808:Biostatistics D000086382:COVID-19 D018352:Coronavirus Infections D004196:Disease Outbreaks D058872:Epidemics D005544:Forecasting D006801:Humans D055641:Mathematical Concepts D008954:Models, Biological D010154:Pakistan D058873:Pandemics D011024:Pneumonia, Viral D011790:Quarantine D000086402:SARS-CoV-2
prediction COVID-19 projection epidemic curve medication coronavirus