The Structure and Parameterization of the Breast Cancer Transition Model Among Chinese Women.
OBJECTIVES
Markov model simulation based on the natural history of disease is commonly employed for the comparative research of health interventions. The present study aims to simulate the natural progression of breast cancer and parameterize the initial and transition probabilities of multiple states of breast cancer development among Chinese women.


METHODS
The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer; and relapse rate of each clinical stage were collected from China's cancer registry yearbooks and clinical epidemiological studies to simulate the process from full health to breast cancer to death among Chinese women aged 30 to 80 through a Markov cohort study. The validity analysis was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the model estimation.


RESULTS
A Markov transition model with 7 states (no breast cancer, clinical stages 0-IV breast cancer, and death) was constructed for Chinese women. The age-specific incidence, mortality, and clinical stage distribution of breast cancer estimated by the initial and transition probabilities among different Markov states were highly consistent with the registered data and observed studies.


CONCLUSION
A breast cancer transition model for Chinese women has been established with validity. It could be a point of reference for further economic evaluations and breast cancer screening policy formulation.
['Huang|Yuan|Y|', 'Li|Qin|Q|', 'Torres-Rueda|Sergio|S|', 'Li|Jiayuan|J|']
D000328:Adult D000368:Aged D000369:Aged, 80 and over D001943:Breast Neoplasms D002681:China D015331:Cohort Studies D018450:Disease Progression D005260:Female D006801:Humans D015994:Incidence D008390:Markov Chains D008875:Middle Aged D012042:Registries
breast cancer Markov model transition probability validity analysis disease transition model