Comparison between recent and long-term physical activity levels as predictors of cardiometabolic risk: a cohort study.
OBJECTIVE
To compare recent and long-term physical activity levels as predictors of cardiometabolic risk in a risk factor-free adult population.


DESIGN
A 12-year prospective cohort study.


SETTING
The Finnish Public Sector study with surveys conducted in four waves at 4-year intervals.


PARTICIPANTS
19 230 participants (mean age 50.2 (SD 9.1) years, 84% women) with no prevalent cardiometabolic risk factors at wave 3 were included. Physical activity was assessed at waves 1, 2 and 3. The long-term physical activity level was determined as the mean of activity from wave 1 to 3 (over 8 years).


OUTCOME MEASURE
4-year incidence of cardiometabolic risk factors (obesity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes) after wave 3, measured individually and as a sum (accumulation of two or more risk factors vs none). Logistic and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used for the analysis.


RESULTS
Graded associations between higher physical activity levels and lower odds of all risk factors were observed (p for trend <0.01). In comparison with the persistently vigorously active participants (≥60 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week), those who were persistently inactive (<7 MET-hours/week) were about four times more likely to develop obesity (OR=4.24, 95% CI=2.83 to 6.36), two times more likely to develop hypertension (OR=2.02, 95% CI=1.45 to 2.82) and dyslipidaemia (OR=1.82, 95% CI=1.03 to 3.22) and eight times more likely to develop diabetes (OR=7.84, 95% CI=1.78 to 34.6). The corresponding OR for accumulating two or more risk factors was 5.24-fold (95% CI=2.39 to 11.47). For recently inactive versus recently vigorously active, the estimates were weaker (OR=2.36, 95% CI=1.71 to 3.25 for obesity; 1.78, 95% CI=1.35 to 2.35 for hypertension; 1.71, 95% CI=1.04 to 2.82 for dyslipidaemia; 3.56, 95% CI=1.06 to 11.96 for diabetes and 2.66, 95% CI=1.48 to 4.78 for ≥2 risk factors).


CONCLUSION
Cardiometabolic risk associated with physical inactivity is better captured by repeated measurements of physical activity than by a single measurement of the most recent activity level.
['Leskinen|Tuija|T|0000-0001-7499-6128', 'Stenholm|Sari|S|', 'Pulakka|Anna|A|0000-0002-0602-8632', 'Pentti|Jaana|J|', 'Kivimäki|Mika|M|', 'Vahtera|Jussi|J|0000-0002-6036-061X']
D000328:Adult D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases D015331:Cohort Studies D015444:Exercise D005260:Female D005387:Finland D006801:Humans D008297:Male D008659:Metabolic Diseases D008875:Middle Aged D011446:Prospective Studies D018570:Risk Assessment
physical activity obesity hypertension dyslipidaemia diabetes