New score for prediction of morbidity in patients undergoing open pancreaticoduodenectomy.
OBJECTIVE
The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is commonly used to predict the risk of postoperative complications in general surgery. However, use of the POSSUM is not absolutely suitable for open pancreaticoduodenectomy (OPD), which has unique complications such as pancreatic fistula formation. This study was performed to establish a new risk score for assessing the incidence of postoperative complications of OPD.


METHODS
This retrospective case-control study involved 159 patients who underwent standard OPD from 2 January 2017 to 1 February 2019. The risk factors for post-OPD complications were statistically investigated, and a risk score model was established by multivariate logistic regression.


RESULTS
Among all 159 patients, 72 (42.28%) developed complications. A scoring system was developed based on the following five independent variables: sodium concentration of <141.20 mmol/L, white blood cell count of >6.35 × 109/L, pancreatic texture grade, body mass index of >25.06 kg/m2, and basic respiratory diseases. Our risk score model demonstrated better discriminating power, prediction power, and prediction probability than the POSSUM model in the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.


CONCLUSION
This novel risk score may help to predict postoperative complications after OPD with higher accuracy than the POSSUM system.
['Chen|Lian|L|', 'Peng|Li|L|', 'Wang|Chao|C|', 'Li|Sheng-Chao|SC|', 'Zhang|Meng|M|https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7346-6176']
D016022:Case-Control Studies D006801:Humans D009017:Morbidity D016577:Pancreaticoduodenectomy D011183:Postoperative Complications D012189:Retrospective Studies D018570:Risk Assessment D012720:Severity of Illness Index
Pancreaticoduodenectomy case-control study risk factors scoring system postoperative morbidity risk prediction