Given the very limited data available at that time, this forecast incorporated a small temporary shock based on the assumption that the pandemic would be limited to China and would peak in the first quarter of 2020 thus having very limited global spillovers.
Ņemot vērā tolaik pieejamos ļoti ierobežotos datus, šī prognoze ietvēra nelielu īslaicīgu satricinājumu, pamatojoties uz pieņēmumu, ka pandēmija attieksies tikai uz Ķīnu un sasniegs maksimumu 2020. gada pirmajā ceturksnī, tādējādi radot ļoti nelielu globālo blakusietekmi.