Scenario forecasting for the choice of energy source type in civil aviation
Subject. Aviation is one of promising transport sectors for the use of hydrogen. However, the level of readiness of aircraft technologies for electric traction and fuel cells as on-board energy sources is too low to accurately predict their economic parameters. Objectives. The aim is to forecast scenarios for technological development of the ‘aircraft and civil aviation’ system, based on its endogenous properties; to build a set of threshold values for external development parameters of the system under study, separating the areas of preference for alternative fuel and energy technologies. Methods. We employ general scientific methods of research. Results. The paper shows the boundaries of prices for aviation kerosene and methane, for aviation kerosene and hydrogen, and for methane and hydrogen, enabling to determine conditions, under which the transition to a particular fuel and energy technology will be economically justified, considering the necessary cost of changing the design of the aircraft. Conclusions. The presented maps of technological forks demonstrate that the transition to hydrogen in aviation will occur only after the price for methane passes its minimum (which is determined by the future level of perfection of its extraction and production technologies), and then exceeds the price for hydrogen, due to the limited easily accessible resources of natural gas. However, this conclusion rests on the assumption that there are no strict measures to discourage hydrocarbon energy in the aviation sector, and that there is no economy of scale.