Morbidity Rates as Regards Tick-Borne Viral Encephalitis in the Russian Federation and across Federal Districts in 2009-2013. Epidemiological Situation in 2014 and Prognosis for 2015
Analyzed has been retrospective epidemiological situation on tick-borne viral encephalitis (TBVE) across Federal Districts of the Russian Federation over the period of 2009-2013 and current situation in 2014. Identified are the constituent entities with high, medium, moderate and low multiannual morbidity rates. Evaluated have been epidemiological trends, measures of the specific and non-specific prophylaxis of TBVE in the territory of Russia. The entities have been classified into four groups, for three of which long-term annual average rates with 95 % confidence interval are forecasted in 2015. It is expected that there will be no TBVE cases in 15 entities; in 55 entities morbidity rates are assumed to be distributed in the following way: in 73 % - up to 6 cases per 100000 ( 0/ 0000); in 21% - up to 13.5 0/ 0000; in 5 % - over 16 0/ 0000. The first group comprises the greatest number of entities with year on year minimal-change morbidity. Variability of morbidity rates in the second and third groups lays premises for the major changes of TBVE long-term annual average rate across the Russian Federation.