In the last decade, Eswatini has been affected by moderate to severe droughts, leading to huge impacts on the economic, environmental and societal sectors. The frequency and magnitude of drought have also increased, emphasising on the importance of drought monitoring. In view of the impacts of drought, it is of critical importance to monitor drought in near real-time and provide early warning information to stakeholders. The challenge however is the fragmentation of climatic data collection, the lack of agreed indicators and the poor coordination amongst institutions resulting in drought management being reactive, or ‘crisis management’ approach. A paradigm shift to a more risk reduction approach is therefore required to enable cost-effective and timely response to drought disasters. The capacity to monitor and predict the drought attributes  is fundamental for spatiotemporal (drought) monitoring. Based on a review of country and regional networks, this research developed an integrated drought monitoring and early warning framework for Eswatini. The framework incorporated an early warning response trigger threshold derived from an integration of the standardised precipitation index and normalised difference vegetation index. The adoption of the framework allows for early warning and early action to mitigate the consequences of drought disasters. Drought preparedness and risk mitigation will help lower the eventual drought relief costs, protect food security and reduce the humanitarian impact on the population. Drought is one of the most detrimental natural hazards causing adverse effects to social and ecological systems  and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI). The framework allows a paradigm shift to a more risk reduction approach, enabling a cost-effective and timely response to drought. The recommendations and framework developed in the research are intended to support Eswatini in the development of its drought policy and disaster management plans.Drought indices are mostly used to monitor drought conditions. The SPI is one of the most common precipitation-based indexes used to monitor drought as it presents a quick measure with minimal data requirements. In southern Africa, dependence on precipitation data alone might not be sufficient to monitor drought in all the areas, especially where data can be incomplete, unavailable, untimely and unreliable. Complementing therefore weather-based data with satellite imagery is essential to identify the spatial and temporal dimensions of drought, and to attain a complete, up-to-date, comprehensive coverage of drought conditions  and cold dry winters (June–August). Mean annual rainfall ranges from 1500 mm in the northern Highveld to 500 mm in the southern Lowveld. The national long-term average rainfall is 788 mm per year. Precipitation varies considerably from year to year, which may either lead to periods of flash floods or drought. Mean annual temperature varies from 17 °C in the Highveld to 22 °C in the Lowveld  was conducted using DrinC software, using monthly rainfall data sets acquired for a period from 1986 to 2017 from 14 rainfall stations . Data seR, was used to explain the relationship between the two indices.The methodology for proactive drought determination was based on the statistical and threshold-based parameters from NDVI and time series of SPI-3. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recommends adopting the SPI to monitor the severity of drought events Man-chi , and Ji R value was calculated for the months of December (for the SPI) and January (for the NDVI) for the selected drought years:Using the formula below for calculating the correlation coefficient, the Y being the dependent (response) variable, and the model function is of a specified form that involves both the predictor variables (NDVI and SPI) and the parameters. Interaction effects between the variables were also considered. The unknown parameters were estimated under certain other assumptions with the help of available data, so that a fitted equation was obtained. In the model, drought determination was based on three main parameters: SPI, NDVI and temperature. The general form of the final model was:The SPI-3, NDVI and temperature data from 2001 and 2017 were modelled to classify drought severity. Although SPI data were available from 1986, NDVI data were only available from 2001 onwards; therefore, only data for both indices from 2001 to 2017 were used for the regression analysis. The available data  were usewhereY is drought occurrence (severity),X1 is NDVIX2 is SPIX3 is the temperature.identification, modelling, tracking, prediction, comparison, and communication with stakeholders. The artefact for the process of knowledge discovery, which encompasses the six steps, incorporates use of data from satellite imagery as well as meteorological data. In the research, therefore, the artefact denotes the abstract representation  was designed to interact with a problem context in order to improve something in that context. To develop the artefact, the research looked at key elements necessary for an effective drought monitoring system in Eswatini. This included reviewing and collecting data on the following:key stakeholdersdrought knowledgedrought management coordinationdrought monitoring and predictiondrought communication and disseminationdrought response capability.To establish a comprehensive framework for drought monitoring, early warning and risk reduction in Eswatini, this research adopted the following steps.Rainfall, SPI and NDVI was determined through:Collection of precipitation and satellite imagery for the calculation of SPI and determination of NDVI.Collection of national or agro ecological zone rainfall data from representative meteorological stations with full data spanning over a period of 30 years or more.Calculation of SPI values using DrinC software.Collection of NDVI images from the GLAM - Global Agricultural Monitoring to determine NDVI values for the month of January.Drought was quantified by the fitting SPI for the month of December and NDVI for the month of January into the following mode:where:Y is the drought severity1 is NDVIX2 is SPIX3 is the temperature.XThe research reviewed data from food security and vulnerability assessments such as Eswatini Vulnerability Assessment Committee (EVAC) report, Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) or Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).This research also involved literature review on previously related work in Eswatini, on agriculture, food security, environment policies and the impacts of droughts, NGOs and government drought interventions. Various data were collected from secondary sources, such as books, articles, local and national government reports, published interviews, newspaper clippings, mapping and diagramming. Because of the nature of this research, having multi-dimensional data sources, triangulation was used to negate or counterbalance the deficiency of a single data collection strategy so as to increase the validity and improve the ability to interpret the findings.The research was built on the improvement of the existing tools to ensure the adoption and buy-in of the drought monitoring and early warning framework. The research analysed the weaknesses in the drought monitoring systems used in Eswatini and compared these with drought monitoring systems from southern Africa, Europe and Latin America. The research looked at country case studies for Botswana, India, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Uganda, from which the author identified the main mechanisms used in drought monitoring and management. The key regional early warning systems for Africa, Europe and Latin America were also reviewed to ascertain how they were linked to the national early warning systems, and the level and nature of support they provided. Based on the case studies the author conceptualised a drought monitoring and early warning framework incorporating results from modelling of SPI and NDVI, the role of stakeholders in monitoring and managing drought information.The research defined the key elements, objectives and key stakeholders to be involved in the implementation, monitoring and funding of the system. Eswatini is utilising various pre- and post-drought monitoring tools. Key informant interviews were used to obtain information from key informants on their perceptions of drought monitoring and early warning. A total of 20 informants were selected through purposive sampling based on the organisations or institutions they worked for, and their expertise and involvement in the subject matter. The informants were drawn from international and local NGOs, UN, government ministries, district and provincial bodies, as well as the community and traditional leaders. Based on the information collected in steps 1–4, a concept was presented to stakeholders from which the framework was logically formulated in a participatory manner.This article followed all ethical standards for a research without direct contact with human or animal subjects.R-value was calculated for the months of December (for SPI-3) and January (for NDVI) for the selected drought years. The results, values of R for SPI-3 and NDVI correlation coefficient, are presented in R, determined at 0.55, which also demonstrated a positive correlation. This suggests that high X variable scores go with high Y variable scores (and vice versa). The scatter points are close to the line, indicating that the two variables had a positive correlation, indicating a moderate to positive linear relationship between the variables.The The NDVI for the month of March for all drought periods ranged between 0.60 and 0.72, with 0.60 being the year the country experienced an extremely pronounced El Niño weather system categorised as the worst El Niño to affect southern Africa in 35 years. The SPI-3 values ranged from 1.41 to −1.90. For the main drought years 2006/2007 and 2015/2016, the SPI-3 closely indicated a severe drought, whilst the NDVI was the lowest. Similarly, in the non-drought years for the same months, SPI values were mostly positive, whereas the NDVI was also high.Y (drought severity). The value of Y varied between 0.06 and 0.84 for the years 2001–2017, with lower Y values indicating wet years and higher Y values representing drier years. However, not all high Y values represented drought years. There was a non-linear relationship between NDVI and SPI with intercepts at Y greater than 0.54  is activated to coordinate the drought management process. Based on the value of Y, the DMTF decides whether additional data is required to ascertain the severity and extent of the drought. Crop assessment and other rapid vulnerability assessments can be imitated to verify the drought status.Using SPI for the month of December and NDVI for the month of January to determine drought severity using the mode Drought management task force reviewBased on the results of the vulnerability assessments, the DMTF can recommend a second drought quantification. If the assessment results have confirmed the extent and severity of the drought, Step 5 can be omitted and recommendations for a CFSAM, EVAC or IPC can be made to determine the extent of aid or support the country will require.Drought quantification – Level 2Y greater than 0.54 indicates a significant dry spell and recommendations for a CFSAM, VAC or IPC can be made to determine the extent of aid or support the country will require. The step will characterise dry spell in levels that will trigger different responses. Drought mitigation/response planning is initiated to ensure that when a declaration is made all state apparatus is ready for a response. Other stakeholders, such as NGOs and the UN, can also start their own planning and resource mobilisation.Using SPI-3 for the month of April and NDVI for the month of May, they are fitted into the model determined in Step 2. For a value of or Integrated Food Security Phase ClassificationConducting food security and vulnerability assessments – Eswatini Vulnerability Assessment Committee, Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission The DMTF will coordinate the administration of any of the standard food security and vulnerability assessments: SVAC, CFSAM or IPC. These assessments will be coordinated with various stakeholders, UN, NGOs, private sector and communities. The objective of these assessments is to validate the outcomes of the drought quantification process based on modelling.Drought management task force final reviewA final DMTF meeting to confirm the extent and severity of drought is conducted and recommendations to government are prepared. A meeting is convened with cabinet within 1 week of technical drought determination to recommend official drought declaration, or drought response without official drought declaration.Government drought declarationThe government will officially declare a drought and put in place emergency measures to prevent a drought disaster.Drought monitoring and management requires a strong institutional structure to monitor and provide a timely response to drought. To support the implementation of the drought monitoring and early warning framework, this research developed an institutional framework for drought monitoring and management . This inThe proposed framework addresses many shortcomings of the current systems and country and regional processes, thereby improving the drought preparedness. Key issues that are addressed are presented in Drought magnitude, duration and intensity in Eswatini are increasing over time. The spatiotemporal analysis of drought is of great importance to Eswatini as the country has been facing recurring droughts with negative impacts on agriculture, environment and economy. The monitoring, prediction, management and mitigation of the drought hazard are essential elements for reducing the impact of droughts on the Eswatini population. The gathering of climatic data is however fragmented between government agencies in Eswatini; there is limited use of multiple indices being used to explain the drought hazard, and there is no coordinated mechanism in place to collect, monitor and communicate drought information in a proactive rather than a reactive manner. This research identified the lack of drought policy frameworks and poor coordination between institutions that provide drought early warning information as the main hindrances of having an effective drought disaster management plan.To counter these limitations, this research developed an integrated drought monitoring and early warning framework that encompasses effective coordination and use of precipitation and remote sensing-based drought indices. The framework adopts an integrated and novel approach for monitoring and assessment of the drought risk based on a combination of meteorological data, NDVI from satellite imagery and targeted collection of ground truth, crop-yield and vulnerability data. The SPI-3 computation and use of NDVI detected the onset of early-season drought, thereby affirming the applicability of drought indices for monitoring near real-time and retrospective droughts in Eswatini. The combined use of spatiotemporal information from both NDVI and SPI time scales allowed for the effective monitoring of the onset, severity and magnitude of droughts. The conceptualisation of the operational drought monitoring and early warning prototype, with well-connected sharing of information with various stakeholders, scientists and communities at different levels within the country and the region, allows early buy-in of key decision-makers of early warning information, thereby enabling the government and the UN agencies to enact mitigation and response planning mechanisms.The framework addresses shortcomings in the existing drought monitoring mechanisms in Eswatini by ensuring the availability of accurate, reliable and high-resolution characterisations through objective science-based methods, information that can be used to make drought preparedness, mitigation and response decisions by stakeholders and communities. The framework facilitates informed drought declarations and enables the dissemination of reliable and timely early warning information for use by governments and stakeholders to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures.The framework proposed mainly centres on the operational aspect of monitoring and does not dwell on other facets of the disaster management cycle, especially drought planning, response and recovery. Legislation to ensure that drought risk reduction strategies are implemented should be developed and enforced. Moreover, emphasis should be placed on the prevention, mitigation and preparedness rather than rely solely on crisis management. The drought monitoring and early warning framework should be further evaluated and compared with other drought monitoring tools with the involvement of regional researchers, governmental authorities and policymakers so as to allow a harmonised approach in the region for drought monitoring and sharing harmonised drought-related products.


Top priority of governments in containing the COVID-19 pandemic is “flattening the curve” which implies a slowing down of the virus’ spread across the entire population. The situation which European policymakers are facing at the moment is completely new and only few of them have the required experience to handle a disaster of such magnitude. What is important now is to avoid problems that repeatedly occurred in past disaster responses by learning the lessons and acting accordingly. This paper reflects on European disaster management in containing the spread of COVID-19 and uncovers response inefficiencies that are still present. Disasters of recent years have caused thousands of victims and long-term ecological, social and economic damage to the affected areas. The Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, the Horn of Africa malnutrition crisis in 2011 and the Nepal Earthquake in 2015 are examples of devastating disasters, which put the resilience of society to the test. Since December 2019, the world population is once again facing a disaster of unexpected magnitude caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). This virus leads to a severe acute respiratory infection (COVID-19), comparable to pneumonia, characterized by fever, cough and shortness of breath  are fairly meager and problems in disaster management have not improved over the last few years. First and foremost, there is the tendency of European countries to perceive disaster risk and to evaluate disaster impacts in very different ways. While some governments did not perceive COVID-19 as a threat to citizens, health systems and general living, others recognized the acute need for action at a very early stage. Accompanied by high levels of uncertainty regarding the virus’ spread, this cocktail led to uncoordinated domestic implementations of measures to manage the pandemic. Not only the speed of reaction but also the mix of measures differed extremely from one country to another. For instance, a complete lockdown  before the third death caused by COVID-19 was performed by Greece, Poland, Austria, Portugal, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Other countries including France, Spain, the United Kingdom or Germany were more reluctant to direct the public to adhere to recommendations regarding personal hygiene, quarantine, travel restrictions, or the closure of public buildings  distancing to slow the rate of transmission, more and more governments are instructing their citizens to wear masks and to use disinfectant spray in supermarkets and even public places. With more than 446 millionProbably the aforementioned inefficiencies could have been avoided by more efficient preparedness activities on a European level. For years, academia has highlighted the relevance and importance of disaster preparedness for a targeted and adequate response after disasters hit (Hale and Moberg


Shape memory alloys (SMAs) show a particular behavior that is the ability to recuperate the original shape while heating above specific critical temperatures (shape memory effect) or to withstand high deformations recoverable while unloading (pseudoelasticity). In many cases the SMAs play the actuator’s role. Starting from the origin of the shape memory effect, the mechanical properties of these alloys are illustrated. This paper presents a review of SMAs applications in the aerospace field with particular emphasis on morphing wings , tailoring of the orientation and inlet geometry of many propulsion system, variable geometry chevron for thrust and noise optimization, and more in general reduction of power consumption. Space applications are described too: to isolate the micro-vibrations, for low-shock release devices and self-deployable solar sails. Novel configurations and devices are highlighted too. Moreover, the R-phase  transformation, considered to be a pre-martensitic phenomenon, appears under certain conditions while cooling. Now it is established that the R-phase itself is a martensitic transformation and contends with the successive martensitic transformation. Due to the excellent mechanical properties, corrosion, and abrasion resistance Ni-Ti shape memory alloys have been widely employed in many technological applications: stent, guide wire, antenna for mobile phones, coffee maker, orthodontic wire, flap for air-conditioner, and many others. The main aim of this review is to identify and exemplify a detailed list of novel applications of SMA in the aerospace field in the most updated manner without the claim of comprehensiveness, according to available recent literature in terms of relevance, number of articles, and novelty of the proposals. Ni-Ti alloys are the most employed ones, but the subject is not limited to them.Shape memory alloys (SMAs) are metals able to recuperate a preset shape just while heating up to a critical transformation temperature. The physical principle they are based on is a particular martensitic transformation (thermoelastic) occurring in some metallic alloys . The lisFor the comprehension of the basic principles regarding the shape memory effect and pseudoelasticity, many contributions are useful. The crystallography of martensite, the transformation temperatures, and rate of martensite formation are discussed in details by Nishiyama .The macrostructure consequences of the microstructure and the shape memory effect have been highlighted by Bhattacharya . The desIn an extremely simplified manner, the main phases involved in an SMA are being austenite stable at higher temperature (parent phase) and martensite stable at lower temperature with tetragonal or monocline structure ,8,12. A The aerospace industry is actively looking for novel solutions and applications based on the integration of the SMAs in the actual technologies as well as the definition and development of new ones. SMA adoption allows to increase the simplicity of the systems as well as to reduce the weight and the volume of such active devices allowing it to achieve more compact structures. SMAs are attractive as a solution to complex engineering problems, along with high actuation stresses and strains due to their intrinsic great power/weight ratio. Integrating actuators and structures means it is possible to achieve high reliability and compact arrangements, reliable also for a high number of activation cycles ,15. SystWing morphing in planes is a practical solution involving structural modifications so that the required specifications can be met in different utilization conditions. Some of the advantages are reported in the following: increased speed, reduced power consumption, roll control, and camber change. On the other hand, morphing is usually associated to drawbacks like surface discontinuity and being over-weight due to the necessary control structures. Adopting shape memory solutions and their corresponding mechanisms means some of these drawbacks can be overcome. Smart Wing Program and Smart and Aircraft and Marine Propulsion System Demonstration (SAMPSON) ,17 are tThe F15E Strike Eagle is a fighter jet conceived to accomplish different kinds of missions. Thanks to the two engines, the aircraft can reach speeds higher than Mach 2.5. The inlet system of this jet consists of five ramps adopted for the conditioning of the air flow for both engines. The ramps are connected to a cowl which can rotate up to 15° as a function of the different flight conditions. The SMAs are employed to rotate the inlet cowl in order to change the air flow cross section. In the tested model, many modifications have been applied from the original configuration allowing to host the shape changing elements. A force of 26,700 N and 9° rotation angle have been applied by means of a bundles of 34 wires . On the A project to decrease noise at airports generated by departing airplanes was focused on by Hartl and Lagouda ,24. It hIn addition to the propulsion system, SMAs can be usefully applied in adapting lifting bodies and morphing the wing structures. The integration of the SMA elements in aerostructure has been focused in many studies. One of the promising approaches is to insert SMA wires into an innovative composite structure. In order to exploit the one-way shape memory effect, NiTi alloy wires of 150 μm diameter have been pre-stressed and inserted into a Kevlar fiber epoxy matrix . SMA comSMA actuators to be employed for morphing wings attracted researchers’ attention. Brailowski et al.  modeled Coutu et al.  identifiA method based on the discontinuous Preisach modeling, able to identify the hysteretic behavior of the morphing wing, has been suggested by Chen et al. in . A groupAnother interesting advantage of this technical solution is that morphing wings can generate smoother wing surfaces, thus increasing airplane agility and efficiency by adopting discontinuous moving surfaces. A novel solution based on a double corrugated variable camber structure with morphing units of the rear edge has been proposed by Kumar et al. . Two conAn interesting historical review about morphing aircraft can be found in . The chaAn interesting overview and a case study of morphing wing for the improvement of the control performance of airplanes have been illustrated by Hattalli and Srivatsa . The casThe comparison of the results from wind tunnel tests and numerical modeling regarding a morphing wing fitted out with flexible upper surface actuated by aileron have been presented by Gabor et al. . The expA novel genetic algorithm useful for the optimization of the shape and of the upper surface of an airfoil by means of actuators has been presented by Koreanski et al. . The metAlso, flap can be morphed by means of shape memory alloys, as proposed and demonstrated by Bashir et al. . The aerSpace applications of SMAs seek to solve the exceptional problems of actuation, release, and vibration attenuation in the launch of a spacecraft or subsequent operations, in conditions of microgravity and zero atmosphere. A solution to this problem has been proposed by Kwon et al.  with a pPresent solar array equipment delivers specific energies of about 20–40 W/kg in the case of the solar array deployment system. Higher specific energies, greater than 100 W/kg, can be achieved with Lightweight Flexible Solar Array (LFSA) technology proposed by Carpenter and Lyons . PhotovoOne of the most successful uses of SMA in space is the solution to the problem of low-shock release devices. These mechanisms are very common in the design of spacecraft and have been conceived and developed some years ago, as shown by the Johnson’s Patent . It dealAnother important SMA possible application field is in solar sailing, still in the small-prototype laboratory test development stage. The solar sail working principle is based on the radiation pressure acting as a propulsion system. Sunlight can be employed to move space vehicles by the reflection of solar photons from a huge and light-weight material. In this way, no propellant is necessary for primary propulsion. A novel self-deploying solar sail activated by NiTi shape memory wires has been designed and manufactured in the form of a small prototype by Costanza and Tata . AluminuA prototypal linear actuator activated by shape memory elements with modular stroke has been designed and manufactured by Costanza et al. . The devIn the last two decades, many applications of SMAs in the aerospace field have been identified, designed, modeled, and tested. Many others will be conceived and developed in the near future. The present review confirms that SMAs attracted researcher’s attention especially in the applications in which the added value is more important than the pure economic saving. Extensive studies, results of analytical and numerical modeling, and experimental tests have been found in literature regarding SMA. In many cases, the SMAs play the role of an actuator. Starting from the basic principle and the mechanical behavior (shape memory effect and pseudoelastic), many applications regarding the wing morphing have been presented  as well tailoring of the inlet geometry of various propulsion systems. Variable geometry chevron actuated by SMA has been illustrated for thrust, noise, and general efficiency optimization. Also, space applications have been described for isolating the micro-vibrations, for low-shock release devices and self-deployable solar sails. The development stage in many cases is limited to prototypes tested in laboratories or in wind tunnels, with only a few actually flown and even fewer in use. The main limitations may be ascribable to the higher weight, in some cases complexity of the systems, and the structural and functional fatigue phenomena in cycling applications. In the near future, many other SMA-based applications will be identified and conceived in which the actuation due to the shape memory effect or the pseudoelasticity will be based on.


Home gardens are recognised in the literature for their contribution to food security, yet the process by which agrobiodiversity and household characteristics mediate this relationship is less well understood. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by drawing on a multi-site case study in the Yucatán region in Mexico. By applying regression analysis, the significance of the association between home garden diversity and food security is confirmed. Plant diversity is found to have a positive association with food consumption scores and the frequency of vegetable intakes. The number of animals used for food purposes is also found to have positive and significant associations with food consumption scores and frequency of meat intakes. However, the dimension and the significance of these positive associations were found to vary among communities and quantiles of the distribution of food security measures. In the households studied, younger individuals and better-educated people, males and Spanish speakers were more likely to engage in jobs in urban areas. Engagement in urban jobs was found to involve complementarities with the overall plant diversity of home gardens, but also trade-offs with the diversity of vegetables and other herbs used for food purposes and with the abundance of animals raised for food purposes.The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-021-01148-w. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World have revealed that this trend is reversing. The most recent edition in particular highlights the rise of hunger in almost all African sub-regions, in Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Western Asia , a type of agave used for textile purposes, an industry that saw its boom during the first decades of the twentieth century. This is the more urbanised region, with its heart located in Mérida, the capital city of Yucatán. In contrast, the milpa, or maize-growing region, has been more isolated, and its residents’ livelihoods are still highly attached to traditional agriculture. Within each region, the research sites studied represent different levels of urbanisation: Hocabá , Sahcabá , Yaxcabá  and Kancabdzonot .Research sites were selected within the Yucatecan region to represent two historical regions: the sisal and the milpa  and the home garden, complemented by forest management and apiculture  of animals used for food purposes is used to assess the animal component of the home garden. The Shannon index captures the species diversity, accounting for the relative abundance of each species in relation to the overall cropping pattern  are used to analyse the contribution of home gardens to food security. Based on the data collected to construct the FCS, frequency in the intake of vegetables and meat and fish is also assessed (0–7 days in the previous week). The FCS was selected as main food security measure because it captures information about the usual household diet, as it summarises consumption frequency over a seven-day period. In addition, the FCS has been validated in different contexts, including Central America  are modelled using Poisson and count quantile regressions. A binary variable taking the value of 0 whether the frequency of intakes was below 4 days and 1 if the frequency was 4 days or over is modelled using probit regressions.Cluster analysis was performed to define context specific thresholds that accounted for the high consumption of sugar and fat identified in the research sites. The thresholds defined from this analysis are as follows: FCS 0–51.5 poor, FCS 52–76 borderline, and FCS > 77 acceptable. Following the common practice , a first attempt was made in applying an instrumental variable and using the size of the plot, the age of the plot, the occupation of the household head and different combinations of these variables as instrumental variables. However, exogeneity of home garden diversity was not rejected.A total number of 18 animal species and 212 plant species were recorded in the 316 home gardens surveyed. Of the plant species, 115 were herbs, 29 were shrubs and 68 were trees. As explained in the introduction, species diversity contributes to the different functions that home gardens perform and the benefits that people derive from them. An increasing peri-urban – rural gradient was observed in the diversity of plants and food animals, with the exception of Sahcabá, a semi-rural community located in the sisal region. This community showed the lowest diversity of plants among the four research sites. The main differences in the type of species diversity across peri-urban – rural gradient were found in herbs used for food purposes, which include vegetables, and the abundance of animals raised for food purposes, mainly poultry and pigs   Table .Table 2PTable Table From the control variables used in the regression analysis it was found that education, ethnicity, wealth, participation in urban jobs, participation in cash-transfers programmes and urban-rural location are also significant factors in explaining household food security Table . Some ofUrban jobs emerged from the analysis as significant factors that explain both food consumption scores and home garden diversity, uncovering trade-offs and complementarities between these two livelihood activities. Households with adults working in urban jobs exhibited a lower diversity of herbs and quantity of animals raised for food purposes but also tended to be better-off in terms of wealth and food consumption scores Table .Table 7SThe decision to work in urban areas has important implications for the mean wage that individuals can aspire to earn. From the survey data collected, individuals working inside their communities reported an average monthly wage of MXN 990.6 , while those working outside their communities reported an average wage more than four times greater Table . AlthougIn the research sites, young adults, men, more educated people and Spanish speakers are more likely to participate in urban jobs. In contrast, occupations within the communities are more accessible livelihood strategies for elderly people, women and Mayan speakers. These differences are likely due to the higher education and Spanish-speaking requirements of urban jobs in comparison with on-farm and off-farm occupations inside the communities. Furthermore, because of the patriarchal nature of Mexican society, occupations are more socially acceptable for women if they are located within their own communities than if they are based in urban area; local occupations allow women to spend more time in their communities and take care of their multiple house chores.The analysis above provides evidence on the contribution of home garden diversity to food security and sheds light on how the rural–urban location of the household and the participation in urban jobs mediate this relationship. Differences in the size of the coefficients across quantile regressions are likely reflecting how home garden plant diversity plays a complementary rather than a main role in household food consumption. Larger effects were identified at the highest quantiles of the FCS distribution which grouped households that also tended to be wealthier. In contrast, the abundance of animals was more relevant in the lowest quantiles of the distribution of both FCS and the frequency of meat intake. These findings are relevant for the design and targeting of home garden interventions; while most of the households may benefit from increased access to inputs and training to grow vegetables, increased access to poultry and small livestock components are likely to result in greater impacts among the poorest households.Household rural–urban interactions can lead to the introduction of new species and gardening techniques as well as to the loss of biodiversity and traditional knowledge De Haan . This reParticipation in urban jobs was identified as having positive associations with the overall levels of plant diversity in the most urbanised communities, but negative associations with the diversity of vegetables and other herbs used for food purposes and with the abundance of animals. Positive associations with plant diversity are likely explained by the introduction of new species and availability of resources to invest in the home garden. Synergy between on-farm and off-farm occupations has been identified in previous studies. For example, in Ghana, Tsiboe et al.  find posmilpa production; the loss of knowledge transmission between fathers and children; and the deterioration of the home garden facilities, such as fences, pigsties and poultry pens. Nonetheless, complementarities are also identified where urban jobs may be allowing households to invest in their home gardens; this appears to apply to total plant diversity, particularly in the communities located in the sisal region.Negative associations between urban jobs and both herb diversity and animal abundance in home gardens may be indicative of trade-offs in the time allocated between on-farm and off-farm activities. The processes of growing herbs and raising animals tend to be more time-consuming in comparison with taking care of other home garden components, such as fruit trees. Guerra Mukul  arrives Participation in urban jobs, however, is not an option for all households nor for all household members as explained in section This research contributes to the understanding of how household characteristics and agrobiodiversity mediate the impact of home gardens on food security. Positive associations are found between plant diversity and animal abundance and different measures of food security. The dimension and the significance of these positive associations was found to vary depending on the type of home garden diversity, across communities and across quantiles of the distribution of food security measures. Plant diversity was significant across all the peri-urban–rural spectrum, while animal abundance was significant in the semi-rural and rural communities, particularly in the lowest quantile of the distribution of food consumption scores.In the research sites, home gardening interacts with other livelihood activities, such as urban jobs, in the fulfilment of household food consumption needs. Participation in urban jobs, however, is constrained by formal and informal institutions. In the households studied, younger individuals, better–educated people, males and Spanish speakers are more likely to engage in jobs in urban areas. Engagement in urban jobs was found to involve not only complementarities with the overall plant diversity of home gardens, but also trade-offs with the diversity of vegetables and other herbs used for food purposes and with the abundance of animals raised for food purposes.One of the main limitations of this study is its reliance on self-reporting measures of food security which are subject to recall errors. Nonetheless, the quality of the data collected was ensured through following international standards, such as those that the World Food Programme has established for the collection and analysis of the data to construct food consumption scores. In consideration of the high incidence of malnutrition in the region, both in form of undernutrition and overweight and obesity, future research could explore the role of home gardening interventions on nutrition status and the incidence of chronic diseases. The relevance of studying this topic has become apparent during the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disproportionately affected populations who suffer from obesity and chronic diseases such as diabetes and hypertension . Other areas for future research include the study of the contribution of home gardening to food security across different seasons and intra-household dynamics of food consumption, as well as the provision of non-tangible services, such as those social and cultural.ESM 1(PDF 532 kb)


Large-scaled disaster events had increasingly occurred worldwide due to global and environmental change. Evidently, disaster response cannot rely merely on the public force. In the golden hour of crisis, not only the individuals should learn to react, protect themselves, and try to help each other, but also the local school, enterprise, non-government organization (NGO), nonprofit organization (NPO), and volunteer groups should collaborate to effectively deal with disaster events. New Taipei City (NTPC), Taiwan, was aware of the need for non-public force response and therefore developed the process of enhancing local disaster management networks through promoting the resilient community since 2009. The concept of a resilient community is to build community-based capacity for mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery in an all-hazards manner. This study organized the NTPC experience and presented the standard operation procedure (SOP) to promote the resilient community, key obstacles, maintenance mechanism, and the successful formulation of the local disaster management network. The performance of the promotion was evaluated through a questionnaire survey and found that participants affirmed the positive effect of building community capacity through the entire process. In general, the resilient community as the center of the local disaster management work is shown promising to holistically bridge the inner/outer resources and systematically respond to disaster events. Global warming and environmental changes have led to more frequent and extreme weather events and resulted in disasters of a greater magnitude worldwide. Serious disaster events accompanied by significant casualties repeatedly occurred, such as the 1995 Great Hanshin earthquake in Japan, the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, 2005 Hurricane Katrina in the USA, 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, 2009 Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan, as well as 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Exposure of persons and assets in all countries has increased faster than vulnerability has decreased, thus generating new risks and a steady rise in disaster-related losses, especially at the local and community level. The impact could be short, medium, and long term and appears in terms of economic, social, health, cultural, and environmental aspects [In the 1995 Great Hanshin earthquake, during the early stage, 34.9% of those in danger survived by themselves, 31.9% escaped with assistance by family members, 28.1% by neighbors/friends, and 2.6% by passerby , awareneThis study aims to present how New Taipei City (NTPC) government, Taiwan, integrated the resources at the local government level and enhance the local disaster management by building a significant amount of resilient community, and begins with why the promotion of resilient community is necessary and how the promotion links to the local disaster management network. The performance is assessed through a questionnaire survey. Two successful cases of community operation are introduced. From the NTPC government’s angle, its experience from nowhere to somewhere is investigated and key obstacles, as well as solutions, are finally identified.2 with a population of 4 million. There are 29 districts and 1032 villages under NTPC authority. Districts can be categorized into 3 types, i.e., 8 in the urban areas, 15 in the rural areas, and 6 in urban-rural areas. Geologically, NTPC is extremely vulnerable to earthquakes due to the direct pass-through of active Shanchiao fault from the south-west to the north-east. From a topographical perspective, 88% of NTPC is the mountainous area (partly covered by Tatun volcano), and the entire coastline is 126 km long, which means NTPC is prone to geohazards such as debris flows, landslides, volcano eruptions, and tsunamis. Flooding is another disaster event happening frequently due to annual typhoon and torrential rain. Furthermore, two nuclear power plants are situated in NTPC, implying possible nuclear hazards  for the public to have access to risk maps of earthquake, landslide, debris flow, flooding, tsunami, and nuclear event nationwide. The environmental assessment should cover the location of the community, its neighboring geography, social condition, and historical disaster hotspots. The disaster risk assessment must include disaster type the community is facing and associated risk map drawing. The community usually has no capacity of drawing such kind of risk map; therefore, it is advised to utilize some government resources. In Taiwan, the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) developed the risk map platform Regular training: It defines the courses and skill training to behold and its frequency;(2)Community disaster management database update: It includes the response team member recruitment/retirement, vulnerable residents list update, and equipment maintenance frequency;(3)Disaster processing record: The community should record the action taken pre-disaster, in-disaster, and post-disaster. It helps review the community action as well as identify defects and weak points of the plan.After the resilient community is established, the top issue is that the community sometimes does not keep on its work due to not having a sustainable operation mechanism to follow. The standard sustainable operation mechanism for the resilient community in NTPC includes the following items:The community action plan was discussed and instituted by the residents and the community response team. Stakeholders, such as the school, enterprise, or vulnerable individual/groups in the neighboring area, were welcome to join the discussion. The role of each stakeholder was be identified, e.g., community response team as helpers; residents and vulnerable individuals/groups as help receivers; enterprise as helpers and living material supplier; school as shelter accommodators.Education and training aim to develop the knowledge and basic skills for community residents responding to disasters and specifically enhance the response team’s capacity to execute their tasks. For the basic knowledge, the courses include disaster response concepts according to the community disaster characteristics. The required skills include basic first aid, such as CPR (cardiopulmonary resuscitation), Heimlich maneuver, and AED  and operation of equipment such as fire extinguishers, pumps, power saws, etc. This course is suggested to be hosted at least once per year.Scenarios must correspond to community characteristics in terms of single disaster or complex disaster.Self-protection skills of individuals could be exercised, such as “Drop”, “Cover”, “Hold On” during the earthquake.The disaster scale should be designed properly so that the community must and could react. If the scale is too small, then no significant damage will highlight the necessity for community response; if the scale is too large, most community members might lose their capability due to casualties resulting in malfunction of the team.Every division in the community response team should have the chance to familiarize themselves with their tasks and required skills.Coordination and communication among the response team, stakeholders, and public/private agencies should be tested.The community should understand the evacuation routes to the shelter as well as arrange and test the transportation for evacuation.Collaboration between the district office and the community team to open the shelter should be exercised.The community response team members could practice their tasks and skills through the war game or drill. War game helps test the validity of the action plan established in step 4, and the drill can further test the skills learned from step 5. In NTPC, not only the community response team but also stakeholders in the neighboring area, such as staff from the district office, the local fire department, school staffs, and enterprise partners are role players. Upon completion of resilient community development, posters and videos are made showing the annual activities and joint efforts achieved by the community, government, school, and enterprise. The community response team member share experiences with those from other communities/villages who have never joined the resilient community workshop. The purpose is to not only encourage the ongoing involvement in this developed resilient community but also inspire other villages’ participation shortly.To evaluate the effect and performance of promoting a resilient community, an anonymous physical questionnaire survey was conducted after we finished each resilient community for that year. The participants were informed that participation was voluntary and the participants’ willingness to return the completed questionnaire indicated their consent to participate in this study. Eight key questions were asked as follows:Q1: Do you understand the disaster risk of your community after the workshop?Q2: Do you feel developing a resilient community and building capacity is necessary?Q3: Has your community built a feasible action plan after the workshop?Q4: Do you understand the tasks of the response team?Q5: Are you willing to become a member of the response team?Q6: Have you learned basic medical skills and been capable of performing it when necessary?Q7: Have you learned the fire-fighting skills and been capable of performing it when necessary?Q8: Is retraining necessary for the community?Q1 and Q2 checked if the participants were aware of the disaster risk and management; Q3 checked if the community action plan was built and valid; Q4 and Q5 checked if the participants understood the tasks they should perform while they became response team members; Q6 and Q7 checked if basic skills were well taught; Q8 checked the necessity of hosting retraining courses, and is linked to the maintenance mechanism in Despite the eight key questions, only age and gender information were collected; therefore, no personal information of any specific individual could be exposed.The survey has shown that, after 7-steps of promotion as described in Two case studies are introduced to demonstrate how the established resilient community reacts pre-disaster, in-disaster, and post-disaster. Those cases may not have been catastrophic events but showed how the community spontaneously mobilized after the training received through building community resilience.Jiaqing Village, an urban village located in Zhonghe District, is the resilient community that started in 2019. This village was prone to flooding, earthquake, and fire. After the village was trained and the community response team was organized, it progressively operates whenever there is a typhoon coming . The vilBaiyun Village, a mountainous village located in Xizhi District, is a resilient community stated in 2016. After six months of solid training and immediately after the community drill was performed on 8 October 2016, a landslide event occurred due to Typhoon Aere in the early morning of 9 October. The Village chief, Jun-di Chen, immediately assembled the community response team as well as reported the situation to the Xizhi District Office and NTPC Fire Department as soon as he was notified by the residents who spotted the event. Eight team members were called in and approached the disaster site to evacuate people by knocking on doors one after another. Once the government forces arrived and took over the frontline, the community response team helped set up the cordon to prevent residents from entering the disaster site. The team also helped the public force establish the command post in the nearby area to monitor disaster development and timely response. Finally, when the situation was under control, the response team moved to the shelters and took care of the residents who had evacuated earlier. In total, 34 people took shelter in the Baiyun Activity Center with no casualties reported.The resilient community developed in NTPC has by far been running for three phases as follows. Most problems were identified in phase 1 and solutions were given accordingly in phases 2 and 3. NTPC has launched the resilient community since 2009. Until 2015, only 13 resilient communities were developed by a few NTPC departments. The speed of promotion is quite slow because the NPTC government was unfamiliar with the concept of the resilient community and need help from certain universities who have associated expertise and enough manpower to host the workshops and activities described in During the first phase, key factors impeding the promotion were identified as follows:In general, residents usually lack the willingness to participate in the resilient community workshop from the beginning due to three reasons. First of all, they think that if no serious disaster happened before then why would there be one in the future. Next, there is already some structural protection in the community such as the dike or pumping stations/machines to prevent flooding and the retaining wall to prevent from hillslope disaster. They feel quite safe with those protection measures. Finally, even if a disaster indeed happened, the government would come and help because the government must save the citizens. There are varying conditions in different communities. The community is usually prone to hillside disaster and debris flow in the rural area especially in the mountainous area; prone to earthquake and fire in the urban area especially with densely distributed old buildings; and prone to flooding in the low-lying area. Therefore, there is no “one size fits all” approach for community resilience building .Although the goal of the resilient community is building capacity for it, the NTPC government specifically asks the public sector such as district office and local fire department corps and branch to progressively join associated activities. Therefore, a great amount of time and involvement from the community and public sectors is required. It usually takes a minimum of 3–6 months to develop a base-type resilient community and up to 2 years to finish the complete-type resilient community. The minimum requirement for a base-type resilient community is to raise the residents’ awareness and train their basic skills. For the complete-type resilient community, the 7 steps in The different authorities concerned are entitled to deal with different disaster types. For example, in NTPC, the Water Resources Department and the Agriculture Department promote resilient communities prone to flooding and debris flow, respectively. It is not be a problem if the community has only a single disaster type. However, it is very common that the community has more than one disaster potential. More than one department can invest in the same community if they wanted to, resulting in the duplicate investment and waste of government resources, furthermore, harming the government’s general interest. One other issue is that every department in the local government is a subordinate agency of certain authority in the central government which institute the policy to promote the resilient community. For example, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau (SWCB) under the Council of Agriculture supervises the Agriculture Department in NTPC. They focus only on debris flow and train the residents accordingly. On the other hand, the Water Resources Agency supervises the Water Resources Department in NTPC to build flood-proof capacity for the community. As a result, not all communities receive the same training and build the all-hazards response code.The abovementioned four obstacles account for the “Integrated Resilient Community Program” launched by the NTPC government in phase 2 and the necessity of establishing a maintenance mechanism, as shown in the following section.From 2016, NTPC launched the “Integrated Resilient Community Program” to assemble all resources, including funding and manpower, from eight departments  . It ensuIn phase 2, the school played quite an important role in the local disaster management network. The Ministry of Education had initiated the campus safety program in 2003, and the focus was on building school internal capacity until 2010. After 2011, schools were asked to gradually cooperate with nearby villages and communities in the context of disaster management. School and district activity centers are two major facilities in Taiwan to shelter the refugees in a disaster event. The community and school must work together while opening the shelter. Besides, both of them could collaborate in medical service, mental caring, patrolling disaster hotspots, and dealing with small-scaled disaster events if needed. Such cooperation is practically valid because most students, even teachers, are from a neighboring community and therefore a tight bonding already exists. The only movement needed to enhance the link and push forward is asking both parties to attend the resilient community workshop and discuss the terms of cooperation in the context of the local disaster management network. Schools, especially at the university level, can also help build resilience capacity for the community .In phases 1 and 2, all of the resilient communities were promoted by the local government’s departments with help from certain universities. However, building community capacity to deal with disasters is the legal duty of the district office in Taiwan. To help the district office learn and promote the resilient community by itself, the community consultant team was organized by the NTPC government in 2018. It hires experts specialized in community disaster management to train the district offices to promote the resilient community through the seven-step process. Besides, the resources from enterprises were specifically introduced to the community in phase 3. As is well known, the key to successful enterprise disaster management is the development of business continuity planning (BCP). However, BCP functions more internally than externally. It means, with BCP, the enterprise knows how to deal with disaster by itself whether in terms of mitigation, preparedness, response, or recovery. What the NTPC government tries to achieve is to develop a cohesive local disaster management network that involves the collaboration of community, public sector, schools, and enterprises. The enterprise is the last piece to complete such a network. Not all enterprises are suitable to join the network. The enterprise must meet three NTPC criteria such as positive image, enough scale, and high willingness. The NTPC government or district office will sign the MOU with the enterprise after it is chosen. To build tighter bonding among stakeholders, the enterprise is invited to join the resilient community activity and discuss cooperation or action plan as mentioned in The maintenance of the resilient community is usually harder than its development; therefore, it is suggested to employed four measures as the NTPC government did and keep the heat on.Retraining is vital as shown by the questionnaire survey (Q8). Various courses could be chosen from the following depending on the community’s needs.Tasks review of the community response team: New members will join the community response team now and then. It is of great importance to make sure each member, whether senior or newcomer, knows his/her task well.Collection and reporting of disaster information: With the popularization of smartphones, more apps are available for collecting disaster information and uploading it to the cloud platform. The community should learn which technical tool is more suitable to the community and how it functions. All disaster information collected could be reserved in a community database for future review.Advanced disaster response skills: Basic skills such as CPR, Heimlich maneuver, and fire extinguisher operation were taught while developing a resilient community. Advanced skills, such as patient moving, escape from the fire scene, and responding with the tool at hand  are suggested in the retraining courses. Considering the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, epidemic prevention is also suggested to be included in the retraining. Thereby, every trainee could be a community watcher and help spread epidemic prevention knowledge and support the government’s action if necessary. The selection of skills is not limited to specific disaster types that the community is most likely to confront. The advanced skill training aims to make the community function in an all-hazards response manner.War game: Every disaster management action plan should be periodically reviewed and tested. At the community level, war game is a less costing and less time-consuming way to validate the plan compared to drill. However, the design of a proper war game is still not easy for the community. They should deeply consider the potential risk and transform it into disaster scenarios for strategy discussion. They will also have to manage inner resources and seek additional outer resources. Usually, inviting experts or public sector personnel to join the war game would help the community deliver more insightful outcomes.Skills training and raising awareness are compulsory for community residents to increase their chance of survival in the catastrophic disaster event. With the right tools and equipment, the core function of self-help and mutual help could be even more effective. The NTPC government supports certain funding for the community to purchase equipment upon the completion of a resilient community establishment. The community could buy the equipment according to a predefined list which includes evacuation bag, disaster prevention hood, helmet, first-aid kit, stretcher, walkie talkie, pumps, fire extinguisher, trolley, power saw, power generator, emergency ration, etc. The purchased equipment should be listed in the community action plan and be maintained regularly. The response team member must be trained to operate it. Environmental risk assessment: The identification of disaster potential and associated strategies must be delivered.Community disaster management database: Including the identification of vulnerable people in the community, inventory of equipment, list of community residents with special skills and who can help respond to disaster, and contact list of outer resources such as police department, fire department, volunteer, school and enterprise.Community response team: Including the head and crew of the five-response team divisions. It is batter if the enterprise and school can join as a support division.Skill training: Including basic skills introduced in Drill: Including the script with properly designed disaster scenarios and the actual role-playing of 5 team divisions.Issuing the resilient community certificate to those progressively engaged in associated activities and who made solid achievements would raise the community’s sense of honor and make it more likely to keep on the operation. NTPC government initiated the certificate application program in 2018. The community receives the NTPC certificate , and it Ideally, after the resilient community is established, it should consistently and spontaneously operate by itself; nevertheless, this is usually not the case in reality. Without the government’s supervision or expert’s assistance, some communities fail to keep on with the work. To avoid it, the NTPC government designed a simple performance tracking table  and asksThe Table is separated into 5 operation types, valid not only for operation during the disaster event but also for mitigation measures on normal days. The following are some suggested actions that the community can take.Mitigation: Including routine education, skill training, drill/war game, environment patrol, disaster information;Preparedness: Including hosting preparedness meeting, equipment inventory, real-time weather monitoring and early warning, checking vulnerable people’s condition and need, patrolling areas prone to disasters, and shelter opening preparedness;Report in: Once the disaster is spotted, reporting to the community and the authority concerned for timely response, as well as to associated private sectors such as water company or power company for assistance;Response: Including dealing with disasters such as removing fallen trees, fire-fighting, identifying risk area and setting up cordon; evacuating people in the high-risk area; helping public sectors such as opening shelter, traffic control, and setting up command post; taking care of wounded by first-aid, caring for, and moving patients;Recovery: Including environment cleaning, recovery, and rebuilding.As shown in It takes a disaster to learn a lesson. However, most people never really suffer from a medium to large scale disaster, not to mention a catastrophic one. What is taught in the resilient community workshop is the concept of self-help and mutual-help, as well as basic response skills. We never know if the residents could apply the concepts and skills perfectly during a disaster event. Therefore, the retraining courses should be hosted persistently. Moreover, most of the public lacks the experience of dealing with post-disaster recovery. It is time for the community to participate in pre-disaster recovery planning with the government to envision the potential damage and associated recovery work. After the entire training of a resilient community, most residents recognize its necessity and are willing to continue running it. The only problem is where the funding support comes from for consistent operation. Although the NTPC government offers the community certain equipment, it is usually not enough regarding the regular operation, emergency response, and administrative works. More funding contributions from public and private sectors shall be needed. The government should put more effort into matchmaking between the needs of the communities and the resources from enterprises.Extracting from NTPC experience, this research has proposed the SOP to promote the resilient community, identified the key obstacles, suggested the maintenance mechanism, and shown the successful formulation of the local disaster management network. The policy to deal with disaster in NTPC is the “top-down” guidance with “bottom-up” implementation. In this manner, responsibilities and initiatives could be well balanced between residents and the government . The net


Pollen limitation occurs widely and has an important effect on flowering plants. The East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region is a global biodiversity hotspot. However, to our knowledge, no study has synthetically assessed the degree of pollen limitation in this area. The present study aims to reveal the degree of pollen limitation for the flowering plants growing on East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains and to test whether the reproductive features or the elevation is closely correlated with the degree of pollen limitation in this area.We complied data from 76 studies, which included 96 species and 108 independent data records. We found that the flowering plants in this area undergo severe pollen limitation  that is much higher than that of the flowering plants growing in many other regions around the world. The degree of pollen limitation was tested to determine the correlation with the capacity for autonomous self-reproduction and with the pollination pattern  of plants. In addition, we found a clear relationship between elevation and the degree of pollen limitation, which indicates that plants might undergo more severe pollen limitation in relatively high places.This paper is the first to address the severe pollen limitation of the flowering plants growing in East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region. Moreover, we reveal the positive correlation between elevation and the degree of pollen limitation. Pollen limitation widely occurs and has been an essential clue for determining whether flowering plants undergo limitation from pollination services in natural habitats , 2. FlowPrimula modesta, an obligate heterostylous outcrossing plant that is not pollination limited in domestic environment, but suffers severe pollen limitation in the field . The overall heterogeneity was Q = 4792.3756, P < 0.001. The effect size inferred by the phylogenetic meta-analysis was consistent with the results of the traditional meta-analysis, and the sigma value of the “species” in the analysis was zero, which indicated that a phylogenetic signal was not present in the calculated effects sizes. 82.4% of the species exhibited pollen limitation  , between pollination type and the capacity of autoselfing (p = 0.2702), or between elevation and the capacity of autoselfing on the degree of pollen limitation (p = 0.1821). Only a positive interaction between pollination type and flower shape was found on the degree of pollen limitation .Five explanatory variables were included in the present analysis, and we did not find that the flower shape, reward type or flowering time accounted for the heterogeneity in the dataset significantly. Elevation, the capacity for autonomous selfing and the pollination type accounted for a significant amount of the heterogeneity in the dataset Fig. . The degPollen limitation is frequently reported in various flowering plants in different places around the world , 38. SevComparing with similar studies conducted in different areas around the world  were tested. We found that the flower shape, the rewards type and the flowering time could not effectively explain the variation of the pollen limitation in our dataset. The pollination pattern, i.e., plants with generalized vs. specialized pollination, accounts for a significant amount of the heterogeneity in the dataset. This result indicates that the plants with generalized pollination could probably more effectively avoid pollen limitations in this area . BesidesIn addition, a clear correlation between elevation and the degree of pollen limitation was shown in our results. For a common view for most scientists, the richness, abundance and variability in pollinators are thought to decline from low to high elevation areas , 52. TheThe explanatory factor for the pollen limitation is not always the same in different areas for different plants , 15. TheWe revealed severe pollen limitation for the flowering plants growing in East Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains, which is one of the global biodiversity hotspots. We also found that the capacity for autonomous selfing and the pollination pattern had significant effect on the pollen limitation. In addition, we found a clear relationship between elevation and the degree of pollen limitation; that is, plants grown in high elevation places suffer more severe pollen limitations. The present study is the first to synthesize an analysis of the degree of pollen limitation in this area and to quantitatively assess the relationship between elevation and the degree of pollen limitation.Additional file 1: Table S1. Data, reference, location, elevation, plant features, effect size and its variance for the species included in this review.


As the basis for managing the risks of chemical exposure, the Chemical Risk Assessment (CRA) process can impact a substantial part of the economy, the health of hundreds of millions of people, and the condition of the environment. However, the number of properly assessed chemicals falls short of societal needs due to a lack of experts for evaluation, interference of third party interests, and the sheer volume of potentially relevant information on the chemicals from disparate sources.In order to explore ways in which computational methods may help overcome this discrepancy between the number of chemical risk assessments required on the one hand and the number and adequateness of assessments actually being conducted on the other, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre organised a workshop on Artificial Intelligence for Chemical Risk Assessment (AI4CRA).The workshop identified a number of areas where Artificial Intelligence could potentially increase the number and quality of regulatory risk management decisions based on CRA, involving process simulation, supporting evaluation, identifying problems, facilitating collaboration, finding experts, evidence gathering, systematic review, knowledge discovery, and building cognitive models. Although these are interconnected, they are organised and discussed under two main themes: scientific-technical process and social aspects and the decision making process. The four elements of CRA, i.e. hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and ultimately risk characterisation , depend Similar efforts are being reported from the International Collaboration for the Automation of Systematic Reviews (ICASR) 2A JRC-organised workshop, titled “AI4CRA – Artificial Intelligence for Chemical Risk Assessment”, was held in Ispra, Italy on 4–5 April 2018. The participants were scientists from both the AI and the CRA fields from Aalto University (Finland), Lancaster University, Leeds University (UK), the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the JRC. The participants explored how, and to what extent, applying AI methods could support both the quantitative  and the qualitative  aspects of CRA.•identifying problems•gathering evidence•systematic review•knowledge discovery•supporting evaluation•finding experts•facilitating collaboration•process simulation•cognitive modellingThe following topics were identified as prime candidates to be examined more closely when further efforts are undertaken to make AI an enabling technology in CRA:3•Scientific-technical evaluation process•Social aspects and the decision making processIn the weeks following the workshop, the authors of this manuscript continued their discussion about the most promising areas that could be supported, facilitated or even made possible via the integration of AI. Based on the topics identified in the workshop, and following some regrouping, merging and additional input, two major overarching themes were identified:While the first theme touches upon more content-related issues like actually identifying problems to be addressed with CRA, gathering the scientific evidence via e.g. AI-supported systematic review and general knowledge discovery, the second focuses on the social interaction between actors and stakeholders by enhancing the human-led evaluation process and introducing the notion of simulating and exploring human expert judgement:The level of AI-readiness of the individual topics , which are gaining visibility as a useful systematic analysis product. In brief, evidence maps use systematic review methods to identify the amount and type of evidence available to address a particular topic 4.1.2The collation of relevant evidence and evaluation of its quality and suitability for use in the assessment process are crucial steps at the beginning of a CRA.AI could be trained to crowd-source multi-disciplinary expertise, and add complementary and useful knowledge normally not considered in a specific context.New streams of data from biomonitoring and epidemiological studies can contribute to the overall picture In line with Wilson’s statement that “we are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom” Not only scientific literature, study reports and submitted dossiers should be considered for CRA, but other valuable “unofficial” sources of information should also be included and mined, such as “grey” literature and other information from the web and social media, e.g. twitter or blogs. These could contribute to identifying trends or emerging risks, by providing information for example on actual use (or misuse) of, and exposure to, chemicals.AI could contribute to building good quality data for CRA. In addition to analysing evidence more efficiently, AI could identify data gaps and help to formulate the corresponding research questions. AI might contribute to setting up the experimental design in the most efficient and effective way to close the knowledge gaps.The main obstacle to keeping on top of research is that scientific papers are being published at ever increasing rates. To keep abreast of all research which is relevant to a topic or policy area is impossible without some means of automating the aggregation and summarisation of the content. Without technology, research synthesis efforts remain limited and incomplete.Example 2: systematic reviewIn the near term, AI could dramatically increase the amount of conducted systematic reviews (SRs), which in the long run could lead to a culture of evidence-use based primarily on the systematic gathering and appraisal of evidence streams. This would reduce the risk of a 'single study' influence on policy decisions, and ease the process of obtaining scientific consensus. They are both vital for areas where facts are heavily contested and opinions highly polarised.An SR aims to provide a complete summary of current evidence which is relevant to answering a research question. They are characterised by the effort made to minimise the risk of bias in the evidence review process, emphasising sensitive search strategies, comprehensive inclusion criteria, and transparent and reproducible approaches to critically appraising existing evidence and synthesising it into summary results .While the transparency and the minimised risk of bias of an SR has a strong appeal as a technique for developing the methodological quality of CRA, they are lengthy, labour-intensive projects to undertake, which require a great deal of specialised skill across multiple disciplines to complete successfully. This is proving a significant barrier to their uptake in regulatory contexts, where time-frames are often relatively short, and capacity often limited in comparison to the requirements of the methodology.AI stands to shift this balance in many ways, potentially at every stage of the review process. AI can facilitate each individual step see  of an SRExample 3: evaluating complex exposure scenariosAI could help with complex evaluations, for example to conclude on possible effects of combined exposure to chemicals and to simulate exposure to chemicals for a multitude of different possible exposure scenarios and probabilities – across different sectors and pathways, such as via food, consumer goods, occupational and environmental exposure, and for different populations in terms of geography and susceptibility, and over different periods of time. Similarly, in the direct assessment of chemical mixtures, even in the ideal case that the effects were known for all individual chemical components, the sheer number of possible combinations of several compounds in many possible concentrations is too high as to allow a simulation of the mixtures and measurement of the effects of all these theoretically possible combinations in a laboratory In the near term, AI machine-reading tools will enable the characteristics and results of hundreds of thousands of studies relevant to assessing chemical health risks, currently locked away in individual manuscripts, to be converted into composite, queryable databases. These databases can be set up with flagging systems for regulators, automatically identifying new evidence streams which should be analysed, and they should be queryable in terms of concepts essential to their decision-making process. This way, risk managers can be confident that they are acting on all relevant evidence, not just part of it, and their reasoning for focusing on one part of the evidence base rather than another can be made fully transparent.4.1.3As defined in the Commission Communication Information from distinct sources might give new insights when brought together. However, so far there might be no awareness about the existence of and/or connections between these different sources. AI could help to screen and systematically map the “universe of information”, extracting information also from non-easily processable sources, or hidden in scanned documents or graphs, and subsequently to combining them. Pattern recognition techniques can help to make connections and identify relationships, which would be too complex to be recognised by human screening and processing, and support discovering correlations. Furthermore, very different types of data/information have to be integrated to enable conclusions and decision making. AI could help by making sense of data and building knowledge. An example is the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) approach for systematically describing mechanisms of chemical toxicity, and the possibility to find new AOPs or build interconnected AOP networks, based on many scattered pathways or fragments of pathways AI could be trained to identify other substances that could inform the CRA, if identification of similarity in chemical structures, biological behaviour or nature of the available data, would be made. Once enough data have accumulated in the chemical risks database, AI could be used to build multidimensional models of patterns latent within the data (such as trends in toxicity), and compare the “profiles” of different chemicals. By comparing such profiles, risk assessors will be able to base predictions of health risks such as carcinogenicity on the basis of all the available evidence, including hidden similarities.The authors recognise multiple initiatives exist in this space, e.g. at ICASR, US EPA, NTP, who are working on operationalising crowd sourcing options with a focus on ensuring interoperability of tools, onboarding of AI, development of training data sets for model development, mapping of various vocabularies into an ontology framework that can be used to help with AOP development and other evidence synthesis activities, and incorporation of tenants of systematic review into the AI pipeline. As a result of the workshop, JRC is reaching out to various actors to encourage further collaboration and streamlining of efforts.4.24.2.1After aggregating the evidence, the next step in a CRA is evaluation. The compiled lines of evidence are assessed, considering the quality of the data, their reliability and associated uncertainties, as well as the relevance for the problem formulated, in order to make an overall judgement. The assessment needs to integrate results from different types of approaches and should be performed in an unbiased way while weighing their respective contributions and handling possibly conflicting results. Evaluation is typically an expert judgement driven process, with expert knowledge and experience being required to make decisions regarding the available data and the conclusions based on them.Different groups of experts are making CRAs in different legal frameworks based on the data made available at a certain point in time. In hindsight, it is often difficult to understand whether and what data was actually considered and how different data was weighed to lead to final conclusions and recommendations regarding the possible or restricted uses of a substance. The discrepancy between decisions taken by different expert groups can lead to mistrust in the resulting CRAs and expert recommendations. Generally, AI could play a role in carrying out the evaluation process in a more neutral, consistent and transparent way.AI could learn how to perform a CRA which could then be peer-reviewed by real experts, and this would be the basis for an iterative learning process for both the machine and the experts.4.2.1.1In terms of expert panel work, there are several ways in which AI could support the CRA process. For example, since the success of a group decision process depends on the dynamics of the group, as well as the complementary strengths and areas of expertise of its members and their knowledge of the topic, and on avoiding potential bias due to the experts’ background, finding an optimal mix of experts is a crucial task which AI could support. A selection based on limited or biased selection criteria, or only based on already established networks, can reduce the chance of finding the right balance of experience, competence and different views which are beneficial for a fruitful discussion. AI could be used to create a mapping system that takes into consideration not only the potential experts’ publications on the topic, but parameters that are normally not considered and difficult to retrieve manually, such as membership in other similar panels, presentations at conferences, presence in committees, etc. Combined with a broad and up-to-date search for the information to map the expertise, this process could reduce the risk of bias and broaden the pool of possibilities, not relying on personal experience or potentially biased judgement criteria of the selectors.4.2.1.2Furthermore, AI could monitor or guide the process in an interactive Weight of Evidence (WoE) and thus help to rationalise the decisions made in the process. A possible direction is to use AI as an external objective observer. It could automatically create and maintain an organised, up-to-date record of topics discussed, and provide further context by linking to relevant information from available sources. This AI-driven external observation could take the form of a dynamic ‘mind map’, generated on the fly as the work of the group progresses, following and facilitating the process in a transparent way. AI would have the ability to cope with large amounts of data regarding individual chemicals, similar chemicals, chemicals in combination, experience made in earlier risk assessments, recognising differences between different evaluations of one chemical or of similar chemicals in different contexts.AI as an instant feedback instrument could also point out all possible variables and their impact, the pros and cons of different options that the group may be faced with, as well as the consequences from the judgements made for the final outcome. This would include tools to explain consequences of decisions thereby informing the weighing of economic and health related impacts.In terms of evaluating uncertainties in CRA, AI can take the probabilistic assessment to a next level by having uncertainties explicitly at the core of the risk assessment methodology.Another direction is a more active involvement of AI in the group decision process, by directly interacting with the members of a group. The contribution of AI could even consist of being a full member of the expert team and contributing an additional expert opinion, drawn from the available data. Going beyond the role of making evaluation more efficient, AI could develop into an overarching universal expert entity in itself, by learning about human expert decisions based on the available evidence. AI would build a collective memory of and accumulate the experience from many experts and learnings from previous cases. Furthermore, AI could derive the implicit knowledge from experts in the first place. This could be valuable for industry and regulators because the potential loss from key experts missing risk assessments could be mitigated. The accumulated knowledge from all AI-assisted group decision processes could act as a shared memory or knowledge resource.4.2.24.2.2.1Once the scope of a CRA is defined, the CRA process is based on the four steps of hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment, and risk characterisation . Since t4.2.2.2Human processes, especially those related to decision making and government, are often assumed to be rational and logically structured. The calls for transparency of decision making are motivated by the need to scrutinise the process, i.e. to verify how much it follows this clear, predefined, logical pathway of reasoning. Certainly, this assumption of rationality is prevalent in strongly codified areas such as risk assessments, but also holds true in other complex co-decision processes where many sources of knowledge, actors and interests are involved.However, the assumption that decision making is mostly rational and strongly relies on an objective analysis of facts is often discussed as simplistic It is unlikely, however, that the decisions are made in a completely haphazard way. There must be underlying mechanisms of how they happen, with patterns of interacting factors contributing to particular results. Therefore, it can be beneficial to better understand our cognition and group dynamic in the context of chemical risk assessment, science advice and decision making. As risk assessment processes and precautionary principle are often contested, a constructive rethinking of them would benefit from a better understanding of the factors at play and their interconnections.For complex processes, a single person, or even a team routinely involved in them, will have difficulty in systematically auto-analysing these patterns of human thinking, interacting, and decision making. This is where AI comes as a potential solution: it could help model cognitive and decision-making processes 1.Where the rationality is strongly expected and clearly codified, AI observations could reveal the actual complications of these assumptions, pointing out areas worth improving in the process.2.Where the process is already not fully clear , they give a tool to understand what is going on. This could be highly interesting information e.g. for researchers interested in providing their input to policy effectively, as they often struggle with an overly simplified policy cycle model.The objectives would slightly vary, depending on scenarios:Models produced by AI could provide empirical evidence of the functioning of decision-making processes. Through such cognitive models, weaker and stronger points of complex processes can be identified and a more thorough reform can be foreseen. If focused specifically on scientific support, it could help map the best ways of achieving impact with evidence.In practical terms, it would require a sufficient number of observable cases , which requires a lot of trust on the side of various institutions who manage or participate in these processes.Full exploitation of all benefits of AI for CRA cannot be a short term operation: Prior to use for decision-making, users will need to see evidence in the quality of AI for accurate collection of information reported in studies  as well as from data sources that may not be reported in single studies (high throughput screening results). Also, the development of AI-based evidence integration approaches will have to be done with awareness of structured frameworks being used in environmental health for weight of evidence .5The workshop participants concluded that AI can support and facilitate important processes and activities in the multifaceted CRA discipline. While the introduction of AI to support CRA will not be a trivial undertaking, the current problems that CRA is facing  will not be solved by conventional means. “More of the same” will not lead to better and reliable CRA, but AI offers the opportunity to support CRA in innovative ways. These include supporting the gathering and analysis of information as the basis for the CRA, facilitating different aspects of expert evaluation, including AI as an additional expert around the table, to simulating all possible assessment pathways and the range of possible outcomes, as well as creating new knowledge and cognitive models of decision-making.AI assisted innovation in evidence gathering could therefore build an automated system of transforming data into knowledge, with much more efficiency. Freed up brain power could be used to identify important gaps in knowledge and frame the right questions. Altogether this leads to a more robust evidence base for policy making, and hopefully to a more transparent method in the decision making process.Using AI is not only beneficial for humans, but in turn can help develop better AI. For example, it would allow developing better systems for human-AI collaboration and AI-based argumentation in the CRA process, building on the complementary strengths of human and machines. In particular, cognitive models not only help AI understand humans better  but also help developing human-understandable and transparent algorithms that can explain reasons (including emotions) behind their actions.It is expected that further exploration of the topics covered in this workshop could lead to executable plans for pilot projects, with a view to eventually increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the CRA process. However, the only way to fully realise the applications of AI for CRA is global and discipline-crossing collaboration. The AI method development and deployment needs (including associated user dashboards) are too large and complex to be developed by any single entity. The development of AI should include a focus on interoperability of tools to best take advantage of the talent and resources available in both the environmental and biomedical sciences.The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.


The rationale for the use of LASER, radiofrequency and focused ultrasound in Female Urology is based on the application of concentrated and controlled amount of energy to the subepithelial vaginal tissues, with the objective of triggering an inflammatory response that leads to collagen deposition and angiogenesis. It is theorized that these phenomena would determine the recovery of normal vaginal physiology. Although theoretically consistent, the real effectiveness of LASER, radiofrequency and focused ultrasound has not yet been adequately proven. However, in recent years, there has been a large proliferation of their indications, both in the medical and physical therapy field, for various conditions.The present review was published by a panel of experts and followed the ICS White Paper about Standard Operating Procedures. According to the authors, the majority of studies available so far have not been randomized, were composed of small series, had short follow-ups and lacked control groups. The authors also noted that until now, studies on LASERS have been funded by industry and have not been compared with conventional treatments, so that the level of evidence is low to allow any recommendation for clinical use. In fact, most references from the review were categorized as level of evidence C or D, regardless the type of clinical indication. According to the authors, although tissue alterations have been described in some publications, they mostly consist of reparative tissue alterations after a thermal injury such that it is difficult to establish a causal link between histological alterations and possible functional recovery.Regarding urinary incontinence, six studies were included in the review, which comprised 19 to 205 patients without a control group, and response to treatment was assessed with short-term validated questionnaires (only one study referred to follow-up for 24 months).Over the past 20 years, a myriad of treatments has been proposed for female urinary incontinence. Most of them were described as highly effective in initial publications, most of them with a short-term follow up. The advent of more developed scientific methods has shown that mid-urethral slings have proved to be reliable and safe long-term options for female incontinence. We expect that the use of laser and other energy sources in Female Urology diseases should soon be studied with the same quality standards.