Serum @entity414 for short-term prediction of XXXX incidence in the Gubbio population Study.

@entity1 @entity1133 @entity301 @entity65 @entity414
OBJECTIVE: The Gubbio Study is an Italian population study measuring risk factors for and incidence of major @entity65 . This analysis investigates the association of serum @entity414 with the incidence of coronary and cardiovascular events. METHODS: A population sample of 2469 @entity1 and @entity1 aged 35-74 years, free from major @entity65 and in whom serum @entity414 was measured in 1983 along with other standard risk factors, were followed up for 6 years and the incidence of @entity301 ( @entity301 ) and all @entity65 (CVD) events, both fatal and non-fatal, was computed. Proportional hazards models were used for the prediction of these events. RESULTS: In six years 61 @entity301 hard criteria, 109 @entity301 any criterion and 149 CVD events were recorded. Age-adjusted rates per 1000 of the 3 event categories were computed in sex-specific quintiles (Q) of serum @entity414 with 428 +/- 76 (Q5) and 198 +/- 42 (Q1) micromol/l, respectively. Although higher rates were seen in Q5 as compared to Q1 for all three first event categories considered (relative risks 6.2, 3.6 and 3.7, respectively), a statistically significant trend was seen only for CVD all criteria (t = 3.63, p < 0.036). These trends were borderline significant for @entity301 any criterion (t = 2.92, p < 0.06) and not significant for @entity301 hard criteria (t = 2.23, p < 0.11). In multivariate models, adjusted for 8 other risk factors, serum @entity414 showed a statistically significant contribution to predict CVD incidence [relative risk (RR) for 92 micromol/l difference of 1.24 with 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.05-1.45], whereas the statistical contribution to predict @entity301 any criterion (RR = 1.19 with CI 0.98-1.45) and @entity301 hard criteria (RR = 1.20 with CI 0.93-1.55) was not significant. Diuretic treatment and blood @entity1133 , as further confounders, were positively and significantly related to event incidence (RR ranging from 1.21 to 2.00) but serum @entity414 maintained its independent and statistically significant role in the prediction of CVD events (RR = 1.18 with CI 1.00-1.39). Presence of specific treatments to lower serum @entity414 levels (in 1.13% of the population), tested as final confounders, was not statistically contributory. CONCLUSIONS: Increased serum @entity414 levels are independently and significantly associated with risk of CVD events in the 6-year follow-up of the Gubbio Study. Longer follow-up is needed before the contributory role of serum @entity414 can be properly assessed to explain @entity301 incidence.
