Short-term risk stratification at admission based on simple clinical data in XXXX .

@entity1 @entity583
Simple clinical data, available in all coronary care units, were recorded in 1,013 consecutive @entity1 with @entity583 ( @entity583 ). In order to identify the @entity1 at highest and lowest risk of mortality during hospital stay, a prognostic index was established from a stepwise logistic discriminant analysis of 10 clinical variables obtained at admission in a consecutive series of 477 @entity1 hospitalized in 1 of 2 coronary care units admitting new @entity1 on alternate days and treating them similarly. This prognostic index was applied to a comparison group of 536 consecutive @entity1 admitted to the other coronary care unit. In the experimental group, 57 of the 477 @entity1 (12%) died during hospital stay; 60 of the 536 @entity1 (11%) died in the comparison group. As individual variables, age, previous history of @entity583 , anterior site and left ventricular function on admission were associated with increased mortality. Three variables were selected from the stepwise logistic discriminant analysis of the experimental group: age; site (anterior = 1, other = 0); and grade of left ventricular function (0 to 4). Prognostic index = 5.9019 - 0.8961 function - 0.5708 location - 0.0369 age. This index was validated in the comparison group. @entity1 were allocated into different classes with increasing index values associated with decreasing risk. Three subgroups of @entity1 were identified: high risk of hospital mortality (index less than or equal to 1; mortality: 51%), intermediate risk (index 1 to 3; mortality: 18%) and low risk (index greater than 3; mortality: 4%). The use of this simple prognostic index may improve clinical management and selection of @entity1 for intervention trials.
