XXXX mortality predictions for the year 2011.

@entity1 @entity788 @entity5 @entity2 @entity1778 @entity204
BACKGROUND: Mortality figures become available after some years. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of @entity204 in 2011 from all @entity5 and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of @entity204 . Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates. RESULTS: The predicted number of @entity5 @entity204 in the EU in 2011 was 1,281,436, with standardized rates of 143/100,000 @entity1 and 85/100,000 @entity1 . Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and @entity1778 , plus @entity2 , will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. @entity2 rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of @entity5 death, as now in Poland. The increasing @entity788 trends in @entity1 observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off. CONCLUSIONS: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of @entity5 @entity204 are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.
