Nomogram predicting the probability of early recurrence after radical prostatectomy for XXXX .

@entity1 @entity1486 @entity263 @entity3
PURPOSE: We developed a nomogram predicting the probability of early biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy because early recurrence predisposes to distant @entity3 and @entity263 related mortality. Identifying @entity1 at risk for early recurrence may improve prognosis as early institution of adjuvant therapy may reduce the risk of progression. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From January 1992 to December 2005, 2,911 @entity1 underwent radical prostatectomy for @entity263 . Cox regression models addressing biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy were used to identify significant predictors. Age, @entity1486 , pathological Gleason sum, surgical margin, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion and lymph node invasion were considered. A nomogram predicting the probability of biochemical recurrence-free survival within 2 years after radical prostatectomy was developed. Data from an independent center were used for external validation (2,875). RESULTS: In both cohorts combined during the first 2 years 11.0% (639) of all @entity1 experienced relapse which accounted for 58.5% of all observed biochemical recurrence. In the development cohort except for age all covariates represented significant predictors of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. Pathological Gleason sum 7 or greater, seminal vesicle invasion and lymph node invasion were the most powerful predictors of biochemical recurrence. The accuracy (c-index) of the nomogram predicting biochemical recurrence-free survival within 2 years after radical prostatectomy was 0.82 in the external validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Two-thirds of all instances of relapse occur during the first 2 years after radical prostatectomy. Those @entity1 can be highly accurately identified with our nomogram. They might benefit the most from adjuvant treatment and could be the ideal candidates for adjuvant treatment trials.
