Estimating a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce XXXX in communities.

@entity1 @entity311 @entity281
BACKGROUND _ OBJECTIVES: Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce @entity311 transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide a means for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, we developed a simple mathematical model. STUDY DESIGN: A static probability model is presented to simulate @entity281 in a community during a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters- sporozoite rate, @entity1 @entity281 rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate. INTERVENTIONS: The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personal mosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellent maintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of @entity311 vectors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: This model measures the probability of evading @entity281 in circumstances where vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance may vary. [corrected] RESULTS _ CONCLUSION: Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates of repellent efficacy and product acceptance. [corrected] Using performance data from a highly effective repellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven- month transmission season. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of @entity281 in community members not completely evading @entity281 can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distribution of a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new @entity281 to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combination of both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantly greater than with the use of ITNs alone.
