XXXX mortality in Spain: trends and projections for 1985-2019.

@entity1 @entity5 @entity14 @entity694 @entity204
BACKGROUND AND AIM: To describe @entity14 ( @entity14 ) mortality trends during 1985-2004 and to estimate @entity14 mortality projections for the period 2005-2019 in Spain. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis has been carried out to investigate the effect of the age, period, and birth cohort on @entity14 mortality in Spain. Mortality projections until 2019 were based on the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: During 1985-1994, @entity14 mortality increased in both sexes (3.9% yearly in @entity1 and 1.5% in @entity1 ). After 1995, @entity14 mortality increased in @entity1 (1.6%) and leveled off in @entity1 (-0.6%). @entity694 mortality increased for the whole period in @entity1 , this increase being lower in the second decade (1985-1994: 5.0%; 1995-2004: 1.8%). In @entity1 , @entity694 mortality increased in the first decade (2.8%) and leveled off during the second decade (-0.1%). @entity5 mortality increased in @entity1 (1.2%) and decreased in @entity1 (-1.1%) during the whole study period. Projections showed an increase in the number of @entity14 in @entity1 older than 60 years and a level off in @entity1 . CONCLUSION: Although mass screening for @entity14 in Spain has not been available, the favorable recent changes in @entity14 mortality trends observed after 1995 could be related to progress in diagnosis and treatment. The projected number of @entity204 could be used as reference scenario for assessing future impact of new treatments as well as the potential impact of future population-based screening when introduced.
