Estimating the potential contribution of XXXX treatments and preventative policies to reduce the @entity64 and ischemic heart disease mortality in @entity233 up to 2032: a modelling study.

@entity1 @entity64 @entity233 @entity741 @entity204 @entity385
BACKGROUND: @entity64 and @entity741 ( @entity741 ) are the main cause of @entity204 globally, including @entity233 . There is substantial potential to reduce @entity64 and @entity741 mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of @entity385 treatment vs population level policies on @entity385 and @entity741 deaths in @entity233 if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032. METHODS: We developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35  years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20  years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three @entity385 treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 @entity385 and @entity741 deaths (306,500 in @entity1 ; 348,600 in @entity1 ) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in @entity233 . Feasible interventions in population level policies might prevent approximately 108,000 (62,580-326,700) fewer @entity64 and @entity741 deaths. This could result in approximately a 17  % reduction in total @entity64 and @entity741 deaths in 2022. Approximately 32  %, 29  %, 11  % and 6  % of that figure could be attributed to a decreased consumption of transfat, dietary salt, saturated fats and fall in smoking prevalence and 22  % could be attributed to increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Feasible improvements in @entity385 treatment could prevent approximately 9  % fewer @entity385 and @entity741 deaths by 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in @entity385 and @entity741 mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention.
