A new predictive model of rebleeding during follow-up of patents with obscure XXXX : A multicenter cohort study.

@entity1 @entity82 @entity548 @entity204 @entity360 @entity1229
BACKGROUND: The long-term recurrence rate of @entity1 with obscure @entity360 (OGIB) who underwent video capsule endoscopy (VCE) remains unknown. Our study aimed to identify the cumulative incidence of rebleeding, develop a predictive model of rebleeding, and evaluate whether the model can be applied in other outcomes among @entity1 with OGIB. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study of 320 @entity1 with OGIB who underwent VCE between 2009 and 2014. A rebleeding model was developed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis and evaluated using Harrell's c-index. RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 43 @entity1 (13.4%) during a mean follow-up period of 18.3 (standard error, 0.9) months. The rebleeding sources were the small intestine (n   =   17), extra-small intestine (n   =   13), and unknown (n   =   13). The cumulative incidence of rebleeding was 11.0% at 12   months and 35.3% at 60   months. Multivariate analysis revealed that female, liver @entity82 , @entity1229 use, overt @entity548 , and positive VCE findings were significant predictors of rebleeding. The rebleeding rate was 0% in @entity1 with no predictors and 40% in @entity1 with full predictors (p   <   0.01). The model presented a high predictive accuracy (c-statistic, 0.733). @entity1 with higher predictors exhibited higher transfusion requirements, longer length of stay, and higher mortality (p   <   0.01). CONCLUSION: The cumulative incidence of rebleeding at 12 and 60   months was 11.0% and 35.3%, respectively. Five factors enable prediction of not only rebleeding, but also transfusion requirements, length of stay, and @entity204 in OGIB @entity1 . This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
