Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for XXXX .

@entity1 @entity5 @entity648 @entity1416 @entity157
BACKGROUND _ AIMS: To develop an individual prognostic calculator for @entity1 with unresectable @entity157 ( @entity157 ) undergoing trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE). METHODS: Data from two prospective databases, regarding 361 @entity1 who received TACE as first-line therapy (2000-2012), were reviewed in order to refine available prognostic tools and to develop a continuous individual web-based prognostic calculator. @entity1 with neoplastic portal vein invasion were excluded from the analysis. The model was built following a bootstrap resampling procedure aimed at identifying prognostic predictors and by carrying out a 10-fold cross-validation for accuracy assessment by means of Harrell's c-statistic. RESULTS: Number of @entity5 , serum albumin, serum total @entity648 , alpha-foetoprotein and maximum @entity5 size were selected as predictors of mortality following TACE with the bootstrap resampling technique. In the 10-fold cross-validation cohort, the model showed a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.649 (95% CI: 0.610-0.688), significantly higher than that of the @entity1416 Prognostic (HAP) score (0.589; 95% CI: 0.552-0.626; P = 0.001) and of the modified HAP-II score (0.611; 95% CI: 0.572-0.650; P = 0.005). Akaike's information criterion for the model was 2520; for the mHAP-II it was 2544 and for the HAP score it was 2554. A web-based calculator was developed for quick consultation at http://www.livercancer.eu/mhap3.html. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed individual prognostic model can provide an accurate prognostic prediction for each @entity1 with unresectable @entity157 following treatment with TACE without class stratification. The availability of an online calculator can help physicians in daily clinical practice.
