Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and XXXX mortality.

@entity64 @entity28 @entity301 @entity5 @entity102 @entity165
BACKGROUND: Quantifying the potential health benefits of improvements in the nutritional quality of the average diet of a population would provide evidence for resource allocation between population-level interventions aimed at reducing @entity102 . METHODS: A model was built linking consumption of food components with biological risk factors (blood pressure, serum @entity165 and @entity28 ) and subsequent mortality from @entity301 , @entity64 and @entity5 . Meta-analyses of individual-level studies that quantified the RR of increased consumption/increased risk factor level on disease outcomes were used to build the model. The sensitivity of the model to the results from the meta-analyses was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. Country-specific estimates of current nutrient intake compared against dietary recommendations for the UK were used to demonstrate the model. RESULTS: Approximately 33   000 deaths per year would be avoided if UK dietary recommendations were met. The modelled reduction in deaths for @entity301 was 20   800 (95% credible interval 17   845-24   069), for @entity64 5876 (3856-7364) and for @entity5 6481 (4487-8353). Over 15   000 of the avoided deaths would be due to increased consumption of fruit and vegetables. CONCLUSIONS: The developed model estimates the impact of population-level dietary changes and is robust. Achieving UK dietary recommendations for fruit and vegetable consumption (five portions a day) would result in substantial health benefits-equivalent benefits would be achieved if salt intakes were lowered to 3.5 g per day or saturated fat intakes were lowered to 3% of total energy.
