Recent trends and future directions for XXXX mortality in Europe.

@entity1 @entity2
@entity2 mortality patterns throughout Europe are very heterogeneous and largely reflect past smoking habits. In order to clarify the changing patterns of @entity2 in Europe we have plotted the overall @entity2 trends among @entity1 and @entity1 for 20 countries from 1950 up to 1998. Furthermore, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated 5 year projections of @entity2 rate up to 2003. Finally, we make some comments on probable future trends by analysing recent trends in adults aged <55 years. @entity2 mortality rates up to age 75 years portray a general trend of decreasing @entity2 rates among @entity1 and increasing @entity2 rates among @entity1 . Exceptions to this decrease among @entity1 include Hungary where not only are current mortality rates much higher than previously observed in any other country (at 76.7 out of 100,000 in 1998) but they are projected to increase further in the short term. Rates among adults aged <55 years have recently peaked, indicating that overall rates are likely to peak in the next decade. Among @entity1 , rapid increases have been observed in Denmark, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland and UK. Whereas Ireland and UK rates have started to decrease and are projected to continue falling, rates in the other three countries are projected to increase further. Trends in @entity1 aged <55 years indicate that rates in Danish @entity1 will peak in the next decade, whereas @entity2 rates among Dutch @entity1 are likely to continue increasing. Rates in Hungarian @entity1 are likely to increase and will surpass the current high rate observed in Denmark.
