XXXX risk prediction using FRAX  : a 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based @entity170 (JPOS) Cohort Study.

@entity1 @entity3604 @entity174 @entity170 @entity79 @entity173
We evaluated the predictive ability of FRAX   in a cohort of 815 Japanese @entity1 . The observed 10-year @entity174 rate did not differ significantly from that predicted by FRAX  . The predictive ability of FRAX   without femoral neck @entity79 ( @entity79 ) was similar to that with femoral neck @entity79 . INTRODUCTION: We evaluated the ability of the Japanese version of FRAX  , a World Health Organization @entity174 risk assessment tool, to predict the 10-year probability of @entity3604 . METHODS: Self-reported major @entity3604 (N = 43) and @entity173 (N = 4) events were ascertained in the 10-year follow-up survey of the Japanese Population-Based @entity170 Cohort Study. @entity1 were 815 @entity1 aged 40-74 years at the baseline survey. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis compared FRAX   with multiple logistic models based on age, body weight, and femoral neck @entity79 . RESULTS: The number of observed major @entity3604 or @entity173 events did not differ significantly from the number of events predicted by the FRAX   model (with or without @entity79 ). The area under the curve (AUC) value for FRAX   with @entity79 for predicting major @entity3604 was similar to that of a logistic model with age, body weight, and @entity79 (0.69 vs. 0.71, respectively; p = 0.198); the AUC of FRAX   with @entity79 for predicting @entity173 was similar to that of a model based on age and @entity79 (0.88 vs. 0.89, respectively; p = 0.164). The AUCs of FRAX   without @entity79 for predicting major @entity173 were similar to those with @entity79 (0.69 vs. 0.67, respectively; p = 0.121; 0.88 vs. 0.86, respectively; p = 0.445). CONCLUSIONS: The Japanese version of FRAX   without @entity79 estimated the 10-year probability of @entity3604 in this population with few clinical risk factors as similar to that of FRAX   with @entity79 .
