Bayesian spatial analysis of XXXX in Zimbabwe.

@entity1 @entity294 @entity221 @entity66
BACKGROUND: Many sub-Saharan countries are confronted with persistently high levels of childhood morbidity and mortality because of the impact of a range of demographic, biological and social factors or situational events that directly precipitate ill health. In particular, under-five morbidity and mortality have increased in recent decades due to childhood @entity294 , cough and @entity221 . Understanding the geographic distribution of such diseases and their relationships to potential risk factors can be invaluable for cost effective intervention. METHODS: Bayesian semi-parametric regression models were used to quantify the spatial risk of childhood @entity294 , @entity221 and cough, as well as associations between @entity66 and a range of factors, after accounting for spatial correlation between neighbouring areas. Such semi-parametric regression models allow joint analysis of non-linear effects of continuous covariates, spatially structured variation, unstructured heterogeneity, and other fixed effects on @entity66 . Modelling and inference made use of the fully Bayesian approach via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques. The analysis was based on data derived from the 1999, 2005/6 and 2010/11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Surveys (ZDHS). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that until recently, sex of @entity1 had little or no significant association with @entity66 . However, a higher proportion of male than female @entity1 within a given province had a significant association with childhood cough, @entity221 and @entity294 . Compared to their counterparts in rural areas, @entity1 raised in an urban setting had less exposure to cough, @entity221 and @entity294 across all the survey years with the exception of @entity294 in 2010. In addition, the link between sanitation, parental education, antenatal care, vaccination and @entity66 was found to be both intuitive and counterintuitive. Results also showed marked geographical differences in the prevalence of childhood @entity294 , @entity221 and cough. Across all the survey years Manicaland province reported the highest cases of @entity66 . There is also clear evidence of significant high prevalence of @entity66 in Mashonaland than in Matabeleland provinces.
