The prediction of thoughts of XXXX or self-harm in a population-based sample of female twins.

@entity308 @entity8527 @entity4697 @entity167 @entity458 @entity2072 @entity393 @entity204
BACKGROUND: Although suicide is a leading cause of @entity204 , few studies have attempted to predict suicidal ideation prospectively using epidemiological samples or multivariate methods. METHOD: Discrete-time event history analysis was used to model the onset of thoughts of @entity204 or self-harm ( @entity8527 /SH) in a population-based sample of female twins (N=2164) using variables from the demographic, psychopathological, childhood adversity, personality and life event domains. Univariate, multivariate-within domain and multivariate-across domain regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Most variables predicted @entity8527 /SH in the univariate analyses. However, the only variables to predict @entity8527 /SH independently were obsessive symptoms, childhood @entity458 , rural residence, unemployment, older age, lifetime history of @entity2072 misuse and low levels of education, personal religious devotion and altruism, as well as divorce/separation, loss of confidant, assault, job @entity393 in the previous month. This final model explained 16% of the variance in @entity8527 /SH. Lifetime histories of @entity308 , @entity4697 and @entity167 misuse had no significant independent effect. CONCLUSIONS: Many variables, from all five domains of risk factors, are associated with the risk of @entity8527 /SH, but many of these effects may be mediated by other risk factors. Proximal life events and psychopathology may have more independent effects than other domains. The overall ability of these risk factors to predict @entity8527 /SH is modest. We cannot rule out that differences between these analyses and previous reports were due to our use of @entity8527 /SH as the dependent variable instead of thoughts of committing suicide per se.
