Risk factors for progression of lumbar spine XXXX : the Chingford Study.

@entity1 @entity626 @entity11621 @entity571 @entity1797 @entity5040 @entity158 @entity543
OBJECTIVE: Few data exist concerning the natural history of lumbar spine @entity1797 and associated risk factors. We therefore undertook this study to examine the radiographic progression of lumbar spine @entity1797 over the course of 9 years in a population-based inception cohort of @entity1 from the Chingford Study. METHODS: Seven hundred ninety-six paired lumbar spine radiographs were read by a single reader for @entity5040 ( @entity5040 ) and @entity543 ( @entity543 ) using the Lane atlas at each lumbar disc space ( @entity11621 ). @entity1797 was defined using thresholds of @entity5040 and @entity543 grade 1+ in one or more vertebrae ( @entity11621 ) within a subject. Progression was defined as an increase in grade in an affected year-1 vertebra. Potential risk factors were assessed using odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), and other potential confounders in logistic regression models using the STATA statistical package. RESULTS: The mean +/- SD age at baseline was 53.8 +/- 6.0 years, and mean +/- SD BMI was 25.4 +/- 4.1 kg/m(2). Progression rates for @entity5040 and @entity543 were 4% per annum and 3% per annum, respectively. Progression of @entity543 was predicted by age, back @entity158 , and radiographic hip and @entity626 ( @entity571 ). Progression of @entity5040 was predicted by age and radiographic hip @entity571 , with borderline significance for BMI >30 kg/m(2). No significant effects were seen for smoking, physical activity, hormone replacement therapy use, multiparity, or hand @entity571 . CONCLUSION: This is the first population-based longitudinal study to assess progression of the individual radiographic features of @entity5040 and @entity543 in lumbar spine @entity1797 . We demonstrated progression rates of 3-4% per annum, with important risk factors for progression, including age, back @entity158 , and radiographic @entity571 at the hip and knee.
