[ XXXX : the risk that must be predicted].

@entity1 @entity791 @entity16222
9356 cases of @entity791 were reported in Mexico through March 1992. Although 7971 were in @entity1 and 1385 in @entity1 , the ratio of male to female cases has declined. In 1985, 1 @entity1 was infected for every 20 @entity1 , but by 1991 the proportion was 1 for every 5. The annual numbers of reported cases through 1992 indicate that the epidemic is abating, but reporting of @entity791 cases may be delayed for up to 4 years in Mexico. The groups considered at greatest risk of @entity791 have changed over time. The proportion of new cases in homosexuals has declined from 80% in the early 1980s to 40% at present. Heterosexually transmitted cases now account for around 23%. Another 17% are transmitted parenterally through transfusions or use of contaminated needles by addicts. The homosexual population has become aware of the danger, but greater attention to prevention is required for the general heterosexual population. Cases are concentrated in the Federal District, which has a rate of 30/100,000. Four states, Baja California, Jalisco, Morelos, and Yucatan, have rates of over 10/100,000, and rates in 10 states exceed 5/100,000. The mean age of reported cases @entity16222 years.
