Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of XXXX : Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study.

@entity1 @entity2175 @entity101 @entity6 @entity164 @entity413
OBJECTIVE: Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of @entity164 2 @entity6 in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of @entity164 2 @entity6 in a Japanese population. METHODS: @entity1 were 37,416 @entity1 and @entity1 , aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. @entity6 was defined as fasting plasma @entity413 (FPG) >= 126 mg/dl, random plasma @entity413 >= 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) >= 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for @entity6 . Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort. RESULTS: The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, @entity101 , and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. @entity1 with a non-invasive score of >= 15 and invasive score of >= 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing @entity164 2 @entity6 within 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting @entity2175 , and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.
