Projected Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) for XXXX related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China.

@entity6835 @entity281 @entity717 @entity166
The impact of climate change on @entity281 has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of @entity6835 ( @entity6835 ) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of @entity6835 in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. @entity717 in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of @entity717 in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the @entity717 may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the @entity717 may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of @entity281 in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of @entity166 associated with climate change.
