Projected effect of increased active travel in german urban regions on the risk of XXXX 2 @entity6 .

@entity1 @entity164 @entity6
BACKGROUND: Future transportation policy is likely to reduce emissions in the cities and urban regions by strengthening active travel. Increased walking and cycling are known to have positive effects on health outcomes. This work estimates effects of increased active travel on @entity164 2 @entity6 in Germany, where 64% of the population live in urban regions. METHODS: Based on the effect size of an increased active travel scenario reported from a recent meta-analysis, we project the change in the life time risk, the proportion of prevented cases and the change in @entity6 free life time in a German birth cohort (born 1985) compared to business as usual. RESULTS: The absolute risk reduction of developing @entity164 2 @entity6 before the age of 80 is 6.4% [95% confidence interval: 3.7-9.7%] for @entity1 and 4.7% [2.2-7.7%] for @entity1 , respectively. Compared to business as usual, the increased active travel scenario prevents 14.0% [8.1-21.2%] of the future cases of @entity6 in @entity1 and 15.8% [9.3-23.1%] in @entity1 . @entity6 free survival increases by 1.7 [1.0-2.7] years in @entity1 and 1.4 [0.6-2.3] in @entity1 . CONCLUSIONS: Our projection predicts a substantial impact of increased active travel on the future burden of @entity164 2 @entity6 . The most striking effect may be seen in the number of prevented cases. In all urban regions with an increased active travel transport policy, about one out of seven male and one out of six female cases can be prevented.
