A prospective validated model for predicting axillary node metastases based on 2,000 sentinel node procedures: the role of XXXX location [corrected].

@entity1 @entity5 @entity1600 @entity513 @entity3
AIMS: The purpose was to identify the independent predictive factors of @entity1600 ( @entity1600 ) in infiltrating @entity513 (IFDC) and to create a prospective, validated statistical model to predict the likelihood of @entity1600 in @entity1 in the present era of sentinel lymph-node (SLN) biopsy and enhanced histopathology. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate analyses of 13 clinicopathological variables (including @entity5 location) were performed to determine predictors of @entity1600 in 1659 eligible SLN biopsy procedures. A logistic regression model was developed and then prospectively validated on a second population of 187 subsequent consecutive procedures. RESULTS: Age, pathological @entity5 size, palpability, @entity3 ( @entity3 ), histological grade, nuclear grade, ductal histological subtype, @entity5 location (quadrant) and multifocality were associated with @entity1600 in univariate analyses (P < 0.001). Of these, only palpability and histological grade were not statistically associated with @entity1600 in the multivariate analysis (P> 0.05). The frequency of @entity1600 in @entity5 was 20.6%, compared with 33.2% for all other quadrants (P<0.0005). There was no statistical difference between UIQ and @entity5 in any clinicopathological variables analysed. The logistic regression model, developed based on the population of 1659, had the same accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value when applied prospectively to the second population. CONCLUSION: Tumour size, @entity3 , age, nuclear grade, histological subtype, multifocality and location in the breast were independent predictive factors for @entity1600 in IFDC. @entity1600 is less frequent in UIQ @entity5 than in @entity5 . Our prospectively validated predictive model could be valuable in pre-operative @entity1 discussions, although staging of the axilla in the individual @entity1 remains necessary.
