Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of @entity3604 in Chinese XXXX and @entity1 .

@entity3604 @entity1 @entity170 @entity174
OBJECTIVE: To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of @entity3604 in Chinese @entity1 and @entity1 . METHODS: A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including @entity174 incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime @entity174 risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year @entity174 risks. We estimated the risk of only the first @entity3604 during the simulation time horizon. RESULTS: The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first @entity3604 (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) @entity174 for Chinese @entity1 aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For @entity1 , the residual lifetime and 10 year @entity174 risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime @entity174 risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year @entity174 risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the @entity174 risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical @entity174 risks were higher than those of hip and wrist @entity174 in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: More than one third of the Chinese @entity1 and approximately one tenth of the Chinese @entity1 aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major @entity3604 in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased @entity174 risks and a rapidly ageing population, @entity170 will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. LIMITATIONS: While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical @entity174 incidence rates were used, wrist @entity174 rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other @entity174 sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. @entity174 risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for @entity174 incidence rates, @entity170 prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.
