Prediction of major XXXX after esophagectomy.

@entity1 @entity1223 @entity5 @entity358 @entity1011
BACKGROUND: Pulmonary complications are the most frequent morbid event after esophagectomy. Understanding factors that are associated with @entity358 may help in @entity1 selection and postoperative management. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of @entity1 who underwent esophagectomy between 1980 and 2009. Univariate analysis was used to identify potential covariates for the development of major @entity358 . Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of complications. A scoring system was developed, and its ability to predict complications was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 516 @entity1 (382 @entity1 [74%]) with a mean age of 59.0  12.5 years underwent esophagectomy for @entity5 (398 [77%]) or benign disease. @entity358 occurred in 197 @entity1 (38%) and were associated with a 10-fold increase in operative mortality (2.5% vs 28%; p<0.001). Independent predictors included @entity1 age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (% predicted), diffusion capacity of the lung for @entity1223 (% predicted), performance status, serum @entity1011 , current cigarette use, and transthoracic resection. The scoring system (based on weighted scores for the first 4 covariates listed above) predicted @entity358 with an accuracy of 70.8% (p<0.001). Score groups identified an incremental risk of complications of 0 to 2, 12%; 3 to 4, 18%; 5 to 6, 46%; 7 to 8, 52%; and 9 to 13, 60% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: @entity358 are frequent after esophagectomy and can be predicted using commonly available clinical information. A scoring system identifying the risk of such complications may assist in @entity1 selection and in providing appropriate resources for postoperative management of higher-risk @entity1 .
