Policy evaluation in XXXX prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model: the MICADO model.

@entity1 @entity66 @entity6 @entity454
AIMS: To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in @entity1 with and without @entity6 . METHODS: The MICADO model includes micro- and @entity66 in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with @entity6 (n  =  498 400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. RESULTS: For the annual number of @entity1 undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of @entity1 with @entity6 -related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of @entity454 estimated using the MICADO model was 247 @entity1 (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 @entity1 ). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. CONCLUSIONS: Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of @entity6 and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting @entity6 and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries.
