Whither Jokowi?
“PRABOWO wins,” The Jakarta Post wrote in its front-page banner of the Feb 15, 2024 edition. But the biggest winner is actually President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.

The history of Indonesia will write him as the first and only outgoing Indonesian leader to score a triple victory in one general election. But at what cost?

Although we still have to wait for the official results that will be based on manual counting of the votes by the General Elections Commission (KPU), all credible pollsters have declared Prabowo Subianto the winner of the presidential race in only one round. The official announcement sometime in March will be just a formality.

Jokowi’s first victory is helping Prabowo win his first election after four attempts and a 15-year wait. Whether you like it or not, as a kingmaker, Jokowi played a pivotal role in determining the election results, using all the powers at his disposal.

His second success is to prove fifth president Megawati Soekarnoputri, the matriarch of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and his erstwhile mentor, wrong about him. She repeatedly and loudly scolded Jokowi in public, saying he would be nobody without the support of the party. Jokowi ran for Surakarta mayor, Jakarta governor and president under the banner of the PDI-P.

Jokowi broke ranks with the party, which nominated Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD in the presidential election this year. The quick counts showed the pair finished third behind the pair of Anies Baswedan and Muhaimin Iskandar in the three-horse race.

Still, the PDI-P looks set to maintain its billing as the largest party since 2014. Whether the PDI-P will opt to play an opposition role as it did during 10 years of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s presidency in 2004-2014 remains to be seen, now that Jokowi is planning a reconciliation with her.

The third achievement for Jokowi is to build his own political dynasty. He has provided a fast track for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who contested the election as Prabowo’s running mate. Based on the quick counts, Gibran will hold the second-highest office, just three years after becoming Surakarta mayor. Gibran’s entry into the race was controversial as the Constitutional Court, which was headed by his uncle Anwar Usman, allowed him to run despite the minimum-age limits. Anwar was later found guilty of violating the code of ethics and lost his top post, but the ruling stands.

After so many controversies that bode ill for his final months in office, do you think Jokowi will be able to enjoy his life in peace when he steps down in October? I doubt life will remain easy for Jokowi.

People who are unhappy with his entrenched intervention in the elections and the election results will not forgive him. They will vent their anger against him, not Prabowo. But who are these people?

They are most likely the educated middle class who value democracy and freedoms. Tens of millions of people who have received social assistance and direct cash transfers especially during the campaign season from the Jokowi government are unlikely to “betray” Jokowi and take to streets to challenge the election results.

Besides, Jokowi still remains extremely popular, partly because of his economic achievements and populist approaches. His high acceptance rate in his final year runs counter to the phenomenon of the lame-duck president he is supposed to be. But as the Reform movement in 1998 that ended dictatorship in Indonesia or the Chilean paradox demonstrated, the middle class is a force the political establishment has to reckon with.

There have been demands to impeach Jokowi among the angry middle class, which does not make sense at all because the ruling coalition dominates the House of Representatives. The public in general is not supportive of “unconstitutional” methods to oust a democratically elected leaders either.

But still, the anger will last long, even when Jokowi is no longer in power.

“The victory came despite a massive outcry, particularly from activists, academics, university students, and a large swath of the middle class, who raised the alarm over alleged improper conduct by the incumbent government of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo in trying to influence the outcome of this election,” the Post wrote in its editorial on Feb. 15.

The editorial described how the state apparatus, from the top down to the lowest level of the National Police and the Indonesian Military, civil servants, the acting regional heads and village heads, were reportedly instructed to take “all necessary actions” to ensure Prabowo won the election.

“And then, of course, there was the massive use of government resources in the form of the cash assistance program, social aid, cheap rice, and the opening of new infrastructure projects to win the hearts of voters, especially in rural parts of the battleground provinces of East and Central Java,” the editorial of this newspaper took note of Jokowi’s alleged abuses of power in favour of Prabowo and Gibran.

The Feb 14 elections, coinciding with Valentine’s Day, will not be remembered as a lovely and endearing democratic event, but as the most rigged and manipulated elections since the fall of the New Order in 1998. The first democratic election was held in 1999, while the first direct presidential election was in 2004.

Jokowi will have about eight months to “transfer his knowledge” to his defence minister before the latter takes over the reins in October. Jokowi once promised to introduce his successor to the world’s leaders during his term and he may realise it. Jokowi will never be a lame-duck president, as he will remain powerful until October. His cabinet, however, will not be just a lame-duck team but also face a very uncomfortable situation as they may have to deal with Prabowo’s shadow cabinet. Horse-trading looks to have started from now within Prabowo’s electoral alliance, which comprises Prabowo’s Gerindra Party, the Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party PAN and several non-parliamentary parties. I believe supporters of the two defeated presidential candidates will also approach the winner, considering Prabowo’s previous promise to build a big tent coalition if elected president.

Prabowo has also promised to continue Jokowi’s policies. But who can guarantee he will not change his mind now he has won? Everything can change after Prabowo takes office, especially if the public maintains their grudges against Jokowi.

I believe it will be just a matter of time before the nation accepts Prabowo as their leader. But many of them may not let Jokowi live a peaceful life after October without paying a high price. —The Jakarta Post/ANN

Kornelius Purba is a senior editor at The Jakarta Post. The views expressed are solely his own.
Now that the outgoing Indonesian president has scored triple victory in election, people who are unhappy with his consistent intervention in the polls may not forgive and forget so easily.