Predicting the next pandemic with weather and disease data
The frequency of extreme weather events, like tropical storms, floods and storms, has increased in Asia and around the world in recent decades.

When these storms emerge, experts use data to better pinpoint when and where they will land, giving people time to prepare or evacuate.

That’s a testament to the warning systems and forecasting capabilities scientists have developed over the years.

Now, public and private sector leaders have an opportunity to create a warning and response system to address a different, but potentially larger impact posed by a changing planet: a heightened risk of disease outbreaks.

Increasing infections

For a variety of reasons, we’re seeing an increase in the spread of infection from animals to humans.

Take dengue for example.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that dengue rates are rising globally with 4.2 million cases reported in 2022.

Historically, about 70% of the world’s dengue cases have been in Asia, with rates growing to record levels in Singapore.

Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam all saw dengue cases surging in 2023, following the hottest summer ever recorded.

With many parts of Asia, including Malaysia, in the grip of an ongoing heatwave, dengue cases in 2024 are expected to be higher than in 2023.

Other mosquito-borne viruses have continued to impact this area.

In 2023, Malaysia saw a spike in malaria cases for some of the first human malaria infections in the country since 2018.

In Pakistan, floods that submerged about a third of the country led to a four-fold increase in malaria cases.

Extreme weather events can contribute to a rise in the mosquito population across the Asia Pacific region, which has increased the frequency of human interaction with these disease-carrying insects.

But mosquitoes are not the only vectors that can transmit disease to humans.

Other animals, like bats, ticks and birds, can do so as well.

And researchers envision that shifting environmental conditions can lead to 4,000 instances of animal-to-human viral transmission.

A monitoring system

Understanding how and where diseases may spread is essential.

Virtually all major epidemics over the last 20 years, including SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), Nipah, Zika and Ebola, emerged when people were infected through contact with wildlife.

And those are just the viruses we know about.

With almost 60% of the world’s population living in areas that account for only 30% of the earth’s total landmass, the boundary between humans and wildlife is blurry, and this is especially true in Asia.

On top of that, researchers have predicted that animals will relocate their habitats closer to larger human populations, increasing the potential of viral transmission from animals to humans.

This makes tracking viruses and other pathogens critical.

And we can’t just react to outbreaks.

We need to monitor and be able to predict when and where they will occur.

That’s exactly the mission of Abbott’s Pandemic Defense Coalition.

This is a first-of-its-kind, industry-led network of scientific and public health organisations around the world focused on identifying, tracking and responding to known and emerging disease threats to help prevent the next pandemic.

Researchers around the world are utilising advanced technology, ongoing disease surveillance and collaboration to track infectious disease outbreaks, predict where potential outbreaks may occur, and better understand what pathogens could cause outbreak, including those that may be amplified as the climate changes.

You can think of the coalition like a sophisticated weather-tracking system.

We have infectious disease experts with eyes on the ground in multiple countries using testing and technology to know how pathogens are changing – or even if new ones pop up – so we can stay one step ahead of the next disease threat.

Scientists in the coalition are already doing research that looks at how the changing climate could impact where diseases spread.

Understanding where viruses are located, how they are spreading, and which may turn into outbreaks, can help countries have testing in place to prevent further spread.

But imagine being able to combine this information with data sets from environmental science and weather patterns to predict, track or control diseases that can be amplified by environmental shifts.

Think of the impact it could have in a tropical country like Malaysia.

Through the evaluation of historic rainfall, flooding data and characteristics that could facilitate a disease outbreak, at any given time, we could determine the country’s susceptibility to an outbreak of West Nile virus, malaria or dengue fever.

If a potential outbreak is forecasted, scientists can partner with local governments, companies and healthcare systems to send surveillance testing, medical resources and other supplies to help the affected area before the possible outbreak becomes a larger problem.

This is a goal we are working to achieve, but only with true global collaboration can it be accomplished.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, we learned that no single organisation, network or country can effectively fight infectious disease pathogens on its own.

It’s important we take these learnings and continue to collaborate across the public and private sectors on pandemic preparedness.

Together, we can combine our expertise in testing and technology to help forecast the next pandemic just as we would a hurricane – and mitigate its impact before it strikes.

Dr Gavin A. Cloherty is Abbott’s Infectious Disease Research head and leads the Abbott Pandemic Defense Coalition. For more information, email starhealth@thestar.com.my. The information provided is for educational and communication purposes only, and should not be considered as medical advice. The Star does not give any warranty on accuracy, completeness, functionality, usefulness or other assurances as to the content appearing in this article. The Star disclaims all responsibility for any losses, damage to property or personal injury suffered directly or indirectly from reliance on such information.
Wellness,Infectious diseases,pandemic
Scientists are working on a forecasting system that can help us stay ahead of potential pandemics.